Is a Thaw with India in the Works, Is It Possible?
By Karamatullah K. Ghori
Toronto, Canada

The businessmen of Pakistan have had an almost symbiotic relationship with politics and politicians. The lines separating them have crisscrossed with such regularity that it’s hard to decipher where, if at all, do they really separate from each other.

Business tycoons have taken to politics as a matter of privilege, if not right. What to talk of tycoons, even not-so-blue-blooded- entrepreneurs have successfully trekked into the realm of politics and reaped rich dividends. The Sharifs of Lahore, hailing from modest business roots have almost carved out an ‘empire’ in both politics and business.

Therefore, it hardly caused a stir amongst the pundits watching, closely, the enigmatic landscape of Pakistan-India relations when Mian Muhammad Mansha, a prominent business magnate, revealed in an address to the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry last week that ‘backdoor diplomacy’ between the two estranged neighbors was in the works to thaw the deep freeze in their bilateral relations.

Mian Mansha, besides being a prominent business tycoon, has also the reputation of being chummy with Mian Nawaz Sharif, the disgraced leader of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Group (PML-N). Their being buddy with each other has been the stuff of myriad tales of Mian Mansha often working as a ‘front-man’ of NS. In return for that role, Mian Mansha is rumored to have been plied with favors aplenty by his powerful mentor in his halcyon days.

On the strength of these rather sterling credentials, what Mian Mansha said at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce conclave deserves to be taken seriously. Not because Mian Mansha is savvy in matters of diplomacy, or backdoor channels of contact with India, but on the basis of his being a close confidant of NS.

One may recall that NS has been regularly caricatured by his political rivals, including Imran Khan, for being too chummy with Narendra Modi and the bunch of shady Indian business tycoons—like the notorious Ambanis et al. bankrolling BJP’s inexorable bandwagon to success. One has often heard this slogan, raised in the circles of those inimical to NS, that his business interests were intertwined with Modi’s tycoon-gang to such an extent that they posed a serious security risk to Pakistan.

Be that as it may, what Mian Mansha claimed so exuberantly in his flourish doesn’t pass the muster, given the ongoing Modi regime’s incorrigible enmity towards Pakistan.

As if to puncture Mansha’s trial balloon, the Indian Chief of Army tweeted, within a day or so of the tycoon’s revelation, that the ceasefire announced last year between the two embittered countries was holding because India had negotiated it from a position of ‘strength.’

The Indian Chief’s hectoring stance was promptly decried by Pakistani army’s spokesman, General Babar Iftikhar who, in his rebuttal, tweeted that the Indian army’s head honcho was clearly off the mark and his statement was “clearly misleading.” Iftikhar, setting the record straight, corrected the arrogant Indian and said the ceasefire “was agreed only due to Pakistan’s concern for the safety of the people of Kashmir living on both sides of the LOC... No side should misconstrue it as their strength or other’s weakness.”

Later, the Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman also shot down the Indian chief’s brazen statement and asserted that it was clearly meant for domestic consumption in India.

What the Foreign Office mandarin said must hurt the hectoring Indian chief. But it also poured water on Mansha’s own wishful thinking. As a savvy business magnate, Mansha is entitled to wish for harmony to prevail between the two countries. Good relations with India make eminent sense in an ideal world. Both countries, and their economies, can reap booty in a normal, hostility-free, ambience between India and Pakistan. What could be more beneficial for the economically-oppressed proverbial common man, of either country, if his government utilized the country’s limited resources for his betterment, rather than squandering them on military build-up?

But, much to the disappointment of Mansha and his ilk, the BJP-led regime of Narendra Modi in India has Pakistan-baiting as its strongest ploy to keep its vote-bank of Hindutva aficionados intact. Ever since Modi has come to power in India, his regime has relentlessly pursued a policy of aggrandizement against its Muslim minority. Hostility to Pakistan is seen, by Modi and the company of religious radicals that he keeps, as a necessary adjunct to their Muslim phobia.

One could quote instance after instance, from the domestic policy book of BJP, targeting India’s Muslims specifically. One conspicuous among a long list of blatant lies fabricated against the Indian Muslims is that they are votaries of Pakistan. By implication, therefore, Modi’s Hindutva-anointed India could only be kept safe for its Hindu majority if India was strong, vis-a-vis Pakistan.

In short, hostility to Pakistan is a fail-safe card in the hands of BJP, a mantra it never fails to flaunt to ensure that its followers would rally around its flag. Polls are due, in the next few months in key states, like UP and Panjab. The outcome of these state elections would indicate the chances of success or failure for the ruling BJP in the next general elections, due in 2024.

Even if there were wishful pundits and businessmen, like Mansha, on the Indian side of the ‘Great Divide,’ it’s simply inconceivable that Modi’s BJP would trade in its enmity with Pakistan at this critical stage, for BJP. How could anyone think Modi would barter his hatred of Pakistan for better trade relations between the two countries? Enmity with Pakistan has served Modi and his henchmen well; it would just be suicidal for the hate-mongers to squander it at the altar of normalcy in relations with Pakistan.

Mian Mansha may have the best interest of Pakistan on his mind when he floated his trial balloon. But his wish of normal relations with Modi’s radical and fascist India is, at best, nothing more than a pipe dream at this stage. - K_K_ghori@hotmail.com

(The author is a former ambassador and career diplomat)