What is to unfold in the coming weeks — that is, from now to the formation of the caretaker government, to elections and beyond? With the board approval of the IMF package a mere formality now, the specter of default is receding and all eyes will be on the run-up to the elections – Atlantic Council
What Is to Unfold in the Coming Weeks
By Abbas Nasir
Pakistan
Next week, the final 30-day countdown will begin to the end of the current parliament’s term and the government’s tenure, at which point a caretaker set-up will take over in Islamabad, Karachi and Quetta, with more or less a one-point agenda of holding elections in the country.
Similar interim administrations are already in place in Lahore and Peshawar, since the dissolution of the Punjab and KP assemblies months ahead of their term-end because the PTI (and its allies) thought the resultant pressure would lead to early countrywide elections.
The party’s gambit failed, as sufficient momentum was not generated to ensure countrywide elections. In fact, even the Supreme Court was unable to force elections in the two assembly-less provinces during the constitutionally stipulated period.
That was quite obviously the result of a weakened court, after a number of events and particularly controversial rulings by a select group of judges who were asked, almost exclusively, to accompany the chief justice on the benches formed by him to hear cases of a political nature.
These decisions created bad blood and, on a number of occasions in recent months, fissures appeared within the apex court when the ‘dissenting’ judges wrote notes later made public, disagreeing with their honorable chief justice on the substance of the rulings as well as bench formation.
A unified apex court perhaps could have been more successful in warding off undue influence exerted by the military establishment, which appeared way beyond its remit in affairs of the state. Thus, the responsibility for undermining the rule of law fell on all organs of the state, not just a hybrid executive.
This is where we stand. So, what is to unfold in the coming weeks — that is, from now to the formation of the caretaker government, to elections and beyond? With the board approval of the IMF package a mere formality now, the specter of default is receding and all eyes will be on the run-up to the elections.
Here are some likely events and situations to look out for. The choice of caretaker prime minister and cabinet and some other developments will signal rather clearly the fate of the fallen-out-of-favor PTI in terms of its electoral prospects, as also the freedom of movement of its top leadership in particular to campaign and motivate supporters.
If the caretakers are those that are seen as having suffered at the hands of the PTI during its term in office, then it would be safe to assume they would have little sympathy for the party and would not lift a finger to help it, or — let’s be more candid — would not be impartial.
This won’t augur well for the PTI, as it is quite apparent that someone else is not enamored of it either, in glaring contrast to the 2018 elections. Having isolated itself by its open hostility to other political parties and powerful quarters, it will be a huge challenge for it to make its large vote bank count at the ballot box.
So far, the party’s critics say, the superior judiciary has stood in the PTI’s corner. These critics point to various rulings such as the one interpreting the defection clause , where legal experts say the constitutional provision was not interpreted but ‘rewritten’. Another case in point is the blanket bail given to Imran Khan covering cases past and future. This was said to be unprecedented.
During the term of the caretaker administration, the top judge’s baton or, more accurately, gavel, will pass from Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandiyal to Justice Qazi Faez Isa on the former’s retirement in the middle of September.
If the prime minister announces the dissolution of the National Assembly before its term ends on Aug 12, the elections would have to be held within 90 days, and if the Assembly completes its five years, then in 60 days. The earliest elections will happen in October.
I think the exercise will more likely happen in middle of November, by which time the new chief justice will have been in office for nearly two months and the incumbent chief justice’s critics say they expect a different attitude from the new top judge and more diverse benches.
Therefore, in case of adverse lower court judgements, including disqualification and possible imprisonment, the appeals process may unfold differently to what may happen if that were to happen today. All this, admittedly, falls in the realm of speculation. Facts could tell a different story.
The DG ISI Lt-Gen Nadeem Anjum is also due to retire in September. I am not clear about the rules and regulations so can’t say whether the incumbent prime minister can offer him an extension ahead of the caretakers taking charge if he wanted to, or whether the DG would even accept one.
Privately, the governing coalition sources say they have a comfortable working relationship with him. To be honest, a change at the very top of the agency won’t be much of a difference as the officer in charge of domestic policy is the DGC, one tier down from the top boss, and, even if the DGI is changed, it will be business as usual up to the elections and possibly beyond.
Of course, the biggest question mark as we speak is about when the PML-N supremo returns to Pakistan and whether he will be cleared by the courts in time to run for elections. And if he were to run and win, would it mean a very short stint for Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister? Or will Nawaz Sharif assume a different, policy/supervisory, role and leave the chief executive’s position for his brother? Of course, this is on the assumption that the PML-N wins enough seats to have its nominee get the top job. Any other result may produce a different permutation. All one can say is that an exciting couple of months lie ahead. – Dawn (T he writer is a former editor of Dawn.)
