Free Iran Demonstration, Washington, DC USA Via Wikimedia Commons
Change Is Coming to Iran ‘No Matter What’
By Peter Schurmann
CA
(Alireza Hekmatshoar is a journalist and host with KIRN Radio Iran in Los Angeles, home to the world’s largest Iranian diaspora community. He says while the protests may not end the regime in Tehran, the people of Iran “don’t believe in this government anymore.” He spoke with ACoM Editor Peter Schurmann.)
Were you surprised when you saw the latest protests erupt in Iran?
No. Even eight months ago, I was saying on my show that Iran would see huge protests because of all the economic, political and social pressure. So for me, the protests were not a surprise. What was a surprise was to see crown prince Reza Pahlavi , (the son of the last Shah of Iran and a dissident in exile) for the first time ever step in and ask people to do something. And the other surprise was to see President Trump threaten Iran that the US would act if the regime moved against protestors.
There have been large protests in Iran, most recently in 2021, and each time analysts speculate whether this marks the end of the regime. Could that happen this time?
Alireza Hekmatshoar of KIRN Radio Iran
Absolutely not. I worked in government in Iran around 20 years ago under then-President Khatami [who served from 1997 to 2005], which was a period of reform for the country. I became familiar with the many military layers that exist within the government. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the government sought to create different layers within the military to prevent any one branch from holding too much power. The most dangerous of these is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and even within the IRGC there is a separate layer. Under President Rafsanjani [who served from 1989-2017], the IRGC became intertwined with Iran’s economy , eventually gaining control over the country’s main source of funding, oil. It also took control of major businesses within the country. The IRGC came to control around 70 to 75% of the economy. Unofficially, that number is closer to 80 or 85%. It is not going to be easy to change the government without first negotiating with this group.
The US just went into Venezuela and essentially “decapitated” the government there while leaving the regime in place. Do you see that happening in Iran?
I don’t see any government trying to change the regime in Iran. Trump went into Venezuela, abducted Nicolas Maduro, and then made a deal with Venezuela’s vice president . I believe this is exactly the model that will happen in Iran. But change is coming, no matter what. People in Iran don’t believe in this government anymore. They want a government that can maintain good relations with the US, with Western nations, even with Israel. This is a big question for people there. Why does Iran funnel so much to groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, while the economy is in tatters? This will not be the last protest. People want to see results.
Do you see any sign the regime is getting that message?
On Wednesday, the Iranian foreign minister went on FOX News and said essentially, come Mr Trump and negotiate with us. And if you want to get into a war, we are ready. But during Iran’s 12-day war with Israel, we found out that Iran in fact doesn’t have the power it once claimed. And when the US takes full control of Venezuela’s oil, that will mark the end of the Islamic Republic because it will lose its ability to control oil prices. So, I am sure, there are people in the government begging to negotiate with Trump. But with the Supreme Leader, that will never happen. There is no way. For the Ayatollah, there is only, down with the US, down with Israel. He will not change his mind. He cannot.
What are you hearing from your audience, your neighbors?
The community is divided; it has been for a long time. During the protests in 2021 , which were focused on women’s rights in Iran, we promoted an event in Downtown Los Angeles in support of the protests. During that event, supporters of Pahlavi came chanting his name. We got a lot of complaints from people saying that rather than promoting the demonstrators in Iran we were promoting Pahlavi, and by extension the Shah. During these latest protests, I see only Pahlavi supporters. They are the most vocal group here in Southern California… even when there is talk of elections, many of them say no, only the king. Nothing else.
There was an incident last weekend involving a U-Haul driver and crowds of Iranians in Los Angeles. Can you tell us what happened?
This is a good example of what I’m talking about. Based on my sources, there are two sides to this. One side says it was a terrorist attack… the other is that the driver believed, being in America, that he could express his opinion by driving his U-Haul plastered with anti-Pahlavi messages alongside the crowd, which was there demanding a return of the Shah. Well, the crowd got very upset, attacked the driver, and based on my information, he tried to escape. There were some injuries, which were not serious. But this is where we are.
Are supporters of Pahlavi not interested in democracy, then?
They believe the return of the Shah is democracy. And for many Iranians, there is little tolerance for dissident voices. You’re either for the Shah, or you are for the Islamic Republic. That’s it. But the truth is, there are many here who oppose the Islamic Republic, but who also don’t want to see power in the hands of one person. Even Pahlavi has said he wants to learn from his opposition. But his supporters insist, right now, it is the Shah or nothing. If you oppose the Islamic Republic, you have to support the Shah. There is no unity.
Can you tell us a little about your own path to becoming a journalist and about KIRN?
I’m a filmmaker and worked as a journalist in Iran after leaving government service. I came to the US as a journalist with a background in cinema and television. Radio Iran 670 AM is 26 years old. We are an independent, commercial radio station. We don’t get paid by any government or organization and we are the only FCC licensed Persian language radio broadcast in the country, covering Southern California and greater Los Angeles.
What about your audience?
There is tremendous diversity within the Iranian community. We have Jews, we have Muslims, we have Zoroastrians, Armenians, Bahá’í. And so there are always events and issues that we cover. Without doubt, the hardest issue we’ve had to cover is the Israel-Palestine conflict. We’ve had to be so careful, because we don’t want to upset the Iranian Jewish community, but then inevitably we upset pro-Palestinian Iranians. Then we have Armenians, who are focused on the Armenian Genocide. So, we have a lot to cover, even putting aside issues here in the US.
A large part of the community is pro-Trump. They believe he will get rid of the Iranian government. I woke up today with a phone call from a 92-year-old man. He was crying, telling me he had hoped to return to Iran before he passes away, to kiss the earth and see his childhood home. Now Trump says he’s negotiating with the regime .
Listen to KIRN Radio IRAN at 670AM/95.5FM HD3 in Los Angeles and Orange County. -
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