By Dr. Nayyer Ali

October 15, 2004

Three States, Three Debates

The Bush vs. Kerry election is heading into its final six weeks. After a year of sparring, a bruising Democratic primary battle between Kerry and Dean, and the two national conventions, the two sides are still in a very close race.

A year ago, this looked unlikely. Bush had won easily in Iraq, Saddam Hussein was captured in a spider hole in December, and the economy appeared to be lifting out of the doldrums. The thought that a Democrat had a chance was wildly optimistic.

But the economy has not done as well as Bush had hoped. While there has been growth, there has not been strong job creation, which is what affects voters most. The total number of jobs in the US as of now is less than it was when Bush took office, even though the economy is more than 5% larger.

Iraq has also turned into a quagmire. US soldiers are dying at a rate of almost 100 per month, and the total number of Americans dead now exceeds 1000. There is little visible evidence of rebuilding and reconstruction, and several large Iraqi cities are no longer under American control (Ramadi, Fallouja, etc.). The forlorn hope is that an election in Iraq in January will dampen the rebellion and allow a stable Iraqi state to take hold. But the neo-con dream of leading the US on a global expedition to reshape the planet in our image is now dead. Quite a comedown from April 2003, when there was a lot of hot air about moving into Iran and Syria next.

Despite Bush’s troubles though, Kerry has not been able to convince a solid majority of Americans to favor him. Opinion polls are lately showing a narrow Bush lead. Kerry’s problem basically is that he has not clearly explained what he would do differently or better than Bush. The average person still is quite frightened of another 9/11, and the officials keep saying that more terrorism is inevitable in the US. The fact that there hasn’t been a single incident in the last three years, while the US has demolished much of the formal Al-Qaeda structure, suggests that a degree of excessive pessimism has taken hold. But this mood helps Bush, as he is seen as more likely to protect America than Kerry.

The election therefore remains very close. In fact, this election has narrowed down to really three states only. Why is that? Because the election is not decided, as Bush certainly knows, by who wins the most votes overall in the country. Rather it is by who wins the most states, with the state’s population determining the value of that state. That value is the “electoral vote”, and varies from 3 votes in the smallest states like Wyoming, to 54 votes for California. There are a total of 538 electoral votes among the states, and 270 are needed to win the election. Now this can lead to a situation, as happened in 2000, where the electoral vote winner actually lost the total popular vote. In fact, if Kerry wins, he will probably still have lost the popular vote to Bush.

National polls show a very close race, but state polls show that a vast majority of states are solidly either pro-Bush or pro-Kerry. This leaves both sides with a base of states that give them over 200 electoral votes each. Only a few states are narrowly divided, and which way they swing is critical to the election outcome.

Of those states, the three largest are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Each has over 20 electoral votes. Whoever wins at least two of those three states will be President. At this point it looks like Bush will win Ohio and Kerry will take Pennsylvania. The election will therefore be decided once again on the outcome in Florida.

How will Florida vote? It remains very close in the state polling. At this point, the only thing that will sway undecided voters significantly is the debates. The three debates over the next month will decide how Florida votes, and that will decide the election.

 

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