Three
States, Three Debates
The Bush vs. Kerry
election is heading into its final six weeks.
After a year of sparring, a bruising Democratic
primary battle between Kerry and Dean, and the
two national conventions, the two sides are still
in a very close race.
A year ago, this looked
unlikely. Bush had won easily in Iraq, Saddam
Hussein was captured in a spider hole in December,
and the economy appeared to be lifting out of
the doldrums. The thought that a Democrat had
a chance was wildly optimistic.
But the economy has
not done as well as Bush had hoped. While there
has been growth, there has not been strong job
creation, which is what affects voters most. The
total number of jobs in the US as of now is less
than it was when Bush took office, even though
the economy is more than 5% larger.
Iraq has also turned
into a quagmire. US soldiers are dying at a rate
of almost 100 per month, and the total number
of Americans dead now exceeds 1000. There is little
visible evidence of rebuilding and reconstruction,
and several large Iraqi cities are no longer under
American control (Ramadi, Fallouja, etc.). The
forlorn hope is that an election in Iraq in January
will dampen the rebellion and allow a stable Iraqi
state to take hold. But the neo-con dream of leading
the US on a global expedition to reshape the planet
in our image is now dead. Quite a comedown from
April 2003, when there was a lot of hot air about
moving into Iran and Syria next.
Despite Bush’s
troubles though, Kerry has not been able to convince
a solid majority of Americans to favor him. Opinion
polls are lately showing a narrow Bush lead. Kerry’s
problem basically is that he has not clearly explained
what he would do differently or better than Bush.
The average person still is quite frightened of
another 9/11, and the officials keep saying that
more terrorism is inevitable in the US. The fact
that there hasn’t been a single incident
in the last three years, while the US has demolished
much of the formal Al-Qaeda structure, suggests
that a degree of excessive pessimism has taken
hold. But this mood helps Bush, as he is seen
as more likely to protect America than Kerry.
The election therefore
remains very close. In fact, this election has
narrowed down to really three states only. Why
is that? Because the election is not decided,
as Bush certainly knows, by who wins the most
votes overall in the country. Rather it is by
who wins the most states, with the state’s
population determining the value of that state.
That value is the “electoral vote”,
and varies from 3 votes in the smallest states
like Wyoming, to 54 votes for California. There
are a total of 538 electoral votes among the states,
and 270 are needed to win the election. Now this
can lead to a situation, as happened in 2000,
where the electoral vote winner actually lost
the total popular vote. In fact, if Kerry wins,
he will probably still have lost the popular vote
to Bush.
National polls show
a very close race, but state polls show that a
vast majority of states are solidly either pro-Bush
or pro-Kerry. This leaves both sides with a base
of states that give them over 200 electoral votes
each. Only a few states are narrowly divided,
and which way they swing is critical to the election
outcome.
Of those states, the
three largest are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Each has over 20 electoral votes. Whoever wins
at least two of those three states will be President.
At this point it looks like Bush will win Ohio
and Kerry will take Pennsylvania. The election
will therefore be decided once again on the outcome
in Florida.
How will Florida vote?
It remains very close in the state polling. At
this point, the only thing that will sway undecided
voters significantly is the debates. The three
debates over the next month will decide how Florida
votes, and that will decide the election.
