December 13 , 2024
The Guardian
The Prospect of a Second Trump Presidency
The prospect of a second Trump presidency has liberals sick to their stomachs. How such an individual could again become President of the US is mystifying to most Democrats. But for good or ill, 49.8% of American voters punished the Democrats for inflation and immigration and a hard left turn on cultural issues that left the median voter feeling that Democrats did not care about them.
Trump ran a campaign in which he made a series of highly dubious promises. He claimed he would round up 10 million undocumented aliens and deport them via massive government-run concentration camps. He would place tariffs on all of America’s trade partners, and even at times suggested that tariffs of 300% might be installed, which would basically crush trade. Since the election, he has stated he plans to place 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports, and 10% on Chinese. Why the Chinese get treated better than our neighbors and allies is unclear. Trump has also nominated a whole cast of bizarre weirdos to important posts in the administration including Matt Gaetz for Attorney General (since withdrawn), RFK Jr for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, Kash Patel as FBI Director, and Michael Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.
None of these people are remotely qualified to fulfill these roles, but Trump is testing to see how far he can push the system and get away with it. With Republicans holding 53 seats in the Senate, to confirm these nominees he can only lose 3 Republican Senators along with all the Democrats.
Trump has also claimed he would end the war in Ukraine in one day, and he would solve the conflict in Gaza. But instead, he has nominated a hardline supporter of Netanyahu as Ambassador to Israel, and he has demanded that Hamas release the hostages it has been holding for over a year or “there will be hell to pay”. It’s not clear if this means he will be giving a green light to Israel to blast Gaza even harder, or that US military strikes against Hamas are possible.
But despite all this bombastic rhetoric, what is Trump actually capable of? The answer is not much. In domestic policy, the real power lies with Congress, and nothing happens that Congress doesn’t agree to. Currently, the Republicans have exceedingly thin majorities in the two houses. With vacancies, the Republicans have essentially one vote to spare in the House. In the Senate, 53 Republican Senators cannot overcome the 60-vote filibuster requirement, so basically no real legislation can pass that is not agreed to by at least 7 Democratic Senators. The Republicans can pass tax legislation without the filibuster blocking them, so it is possible that Trump could get a tax cut through the Senate, but even that may run into trouble in the House. There are so many different interests that have to be balanced to get every Republican in the House to vote for a tax package that writing that legislation is going to be a challenge.
The Republicans will not pass any anti-abortion legislation. They will also not be able to do anything on immigration. The Democrats will not vote for the immigration reform that was agreed to under Biden as they no longer have any incentive to do so. Trump has no means to actually round up and deport 10 million people, and even if he tried to do that, it would cause chaos in agriculture, construction, and food service industries in states like Texas and Florida. Prices would rise, fueling inflation.
The bizarre cast of characters that Trump has nominated so far are going to face very difficult hearings in the Senate. These people all have long public track records of saying and doing a whole host of outrageous things. The difference between 2016 and now is that Trump is only able to serve for four more years. He does not have the ability to threaten Senators who will not be running for reelection till 2028 or 2030 with his wrath. These Senators can easily vote their conscience and block Trump’s crew from taking over key government posts. It is not clear if all of them will have to be tossed along like Matt Gaetz already has been, but chances are good that several of them will not be confirmed.
Trump has more freedom of action in foreign policy. But Trump has no core beliefs or coherent ideology guiding his foreign policy. He just opposes whatever Democrats were in favor of, and seeks adulation and flattery from wherever he can get it. This will lead to some whimsical episodes, like when he suggested buying Greenland from Denmark during his last term. But he has an aversion to military action, which will keep him from getting the US into any pointless wars. In that sense, George W. Bush was a far worse President than Trump, with his deeply mistaken invasion of Iraq. Trump will basically give Israel a free hand and will do nothing for Gaza or the Palestinians in general. Those voters who refused to support Harris because of Gaza are going to be sorely disappointed to see what Trump will do. The main wildcard with Trump is his Ukraine policy. Will he cut off aid to Ukraine and force Ukraine into a settlement that is friendly to Putin’s ambitions? Or will he surprise by continuing to give Ukraine aid and promoting a settlement in which Ukraine gets to join the EU and NATO? Trump so far has given little indication of which way he will go. But even if he abandons the Ukrainians, they will still have the support of the Europeans, and it is not clear whether Putin and Russia are running out of steam themselves. Russia’s economy is suffering badly, and Western sanctions continue to hamper even basic things like access to ball bearings needed to keep Russia’s railways running.
The voters have spoken. Trump will get his four-year term. In reality, though, Trump has about 15 months to make his mark. After that Congress will be paralyzed by the upcoming midterms in 2026, and after those elections, it is highly likely that the Democrats will retake control of the House, and therefore will have the power to block any further Trump legislation. In his last two years, Trump will be a lame duck, while both Democrats and Republicans turn their focus on who will lead their party into the 2028 elections.
