November 01 , 2024
The Des Moines Register
Harris and Trump Race to the Finish Line
With the election only days away, Vice President Harris and former President Trump remain locked in a close duel to the end. Who will prevail? Will the US return to the isolationism and bigotry of the Trump years, or will it make history by electing the first woman, who also happens to be African-American as President?
It’s been a long and unexpected road to this point. After losing the 2020 election and attempting to violently seize power on January 6, 2021, when his goons overran the Capitol and briefly endangered the lives of Congressmen and Senators, it seemed that Trump’s political life was at an end. Not only had he lost the election by 7 million votes, he faced impeachment for his role in the insurrection. But while he was duly impeached by the House for his actions, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, declined to administer the coup de grace. The Senate needed 67 votes to convict Trump, but while all 50 Democrats voted to convict, only 7 Republican Senators did so. McConnell was furious at Trump, and blamed him for January 6 th. By all rights he should have voted to convict and gotten enough other Republican Senators to go along. But McConnell still feared the Trump-loving base of the Republican Party. He wrongly guessed that Trump was done politically, and he could avoid having to convict him. A conviction was necessary, because in that case, he would be barred from ever holding any federal office again, which would mean he could not run for President in 2024. By letting him off, McConnell allowed Trump to seize control of the Republican Party once again. Trump didn’t even have to campaign against his other Republican opponents in the 2024 primaries, famously refusing to participate in any of the debates. He still easily won every single state and became the Republican nominee.
McConnell thought perhaps the legal system would hold Trump accountable. This was attempted, but because the wheels of justice grind so slowly, Trump has mostly avoided his legal messes by pushing them back with appeals. He even got the Supreme Court to weigh in and grant him “immunity” for any “official acts”. Trump was convicted in New York State Court for falsifying business records as part of a scheme to get elected in 2016, but even there the judge so far has not issued a sentence. His other criminal cases, including one in Georgia and two Federal cases under the special prosecutor Jack Smith, have not come close to going to trial. Trump did lose a defamation case in which he was found civilly liable for rape, and another business fraud case in New York where he was fined 400 million dollars. But those cases are tied up in appeals and are civil and not criminal matters. None of these extensive legal troubles have impaired his standing with Republican voters.
On the Democratic side, it looked obvious that President Biden would run for reelection, and he did easily get the nomination of the party. But then he had a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June, and questions of his physical and mental fitness to prosecute the campaign reached a crescendo. After a few weeks of suspense, Biden did the right thing and withdrew. The Democrats coalesced behind VP Kamala Harris in less than 48 hours, and she hit the ground running.
Over the last three months, the race has been remarkably stable. While Trump was beating Biden in the polls, Harris quickly established a small but durable lead of about 2-3 points. This is national polling, and what matters, as we all learned in 2016, is what happens in the small number of swing states that decide the Electoral College. There, the race is really down to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Those seven states will determine the next President, and within each of those states it could come down to few tens of thousands of voters.
Harris has a number of advantages going into the home stretch. She has more than twice as much cash as Trump. She clearly has grassroots energy and enthusiasm as evidenced by her crowd sizes compared to Trump. The Democrats have also built a much better “ground game” focusing on getting out those last few low-propensity voters to show up. Trump does not have much of a ground game having outsourced it to a Super PAC run by Elon Musk, which apparently has done very little.
Another advantage for Harris is that her coalition rests on college-educated voters, while Trump’s is based mainly on Whites without a college degree. We know from previous elections that college-educated people are more likely to vote. Harris also benefits from women voters who are upset over the loss of a constitutional right to an abortion, as the three Trump-appointed justices helped to overturn the landmark Roe vs Wade decision from 1972.
Ultimately, this election will come down to who turns out their voters. In 2020, Trump won non-college-educated White voters 65-35, and lost everyone else 65-35. Since then slight demographic shifts have moved the voters towards the Democrats. But on the other hand, Trump appears to be picking up some support from young African-American and Latino men. If the polls showing that movement turn out to be correct, it could broaden Trump’s coalition. For Harris, if women vote for her in massive numbers, and she is able to pick up a slice of normally Republican women who can’t stomach Trump, that could make a critical difference.
This election could be decided fairly early. The outcomes in Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, will probably determine the winner, and all three states are on the East Coast so will be counting ballots sooner than much of the country. If all three states go for Trump, he will be President, if Harris wins one she will likely win the election, and if she wins two she will definitely win the election. Keep an eye on Florida. It is almost certainly going to go for Trump and the Harris campaign has not tried to win the state, but if it takes a long time for Trump to win, that will be a good sign for Harris, and vice versa.
The critical Senate races will be whether Democrats can hold seats in Ohio and Montana. Republicans are likely to hold all their current seats, but there is potential for surprises in Florida, Texas, and even Nebraska of all places. The House is very close, but likely to flip to Democratic control by a small margin. If Trump does win, getting control of the House will be critical for Democrats to resist the worst parts of the Trump agenda.
