January 08 , 2021
The Dems Take the Senate
In a truly stunning turn of events, the dual special elections held in Georgia on January 5th have given the Democrats control of the Senate. Democrats gained two seats but lost one back in the November election, but both Senate races in Georgia remained undecided.
Georgia has a unique rule dating back to Jim Crow days that an election winner must take over 50% of the vote, and if they fall short a runoff election is then held about 60 days later. Back in November, neither of the incumbent Republican Senators, David Perdue (first elected in 2014), nor Kelly Loeffler (appointed to fill a vacancy and therefore had to run in this election to complete the term ending in 2022) cleared the 50% benchmark. They were forced into a runoff, Perdue against Jon Ossoff, a 33-year-old Jewish documentary filmmaker name, and Loeffler against Raphael Warnock, the pastor of the very church Martin Luther King Jr used to head.
The race was incredibly expensive, as the control of the US Senate was at stake. Over 650 million dollars was spent in the two months of this contest. The Democrats currently have 48 seats out of 100 in the Senate, but if they won both Georgia races, they would have 50. As ties are broken by the Vice-President, this would give the Biden White House the power to throw Senate control to the Democrats.
While the votes have not been fully counted, and likely will not be for several days, it is pretty clear that the Democrats have achieved their goal. Warnock has clearly won, and Ossoff looks very strong as this column is being written. The importance of Democratic control of the Senate cannot be overestimated. With Biden in the White House, and the Democrats holding the House majority, they would enjoy a strong political position. But as long as the Senate was under Republican control, no new liberal legislation could pass, and even mundane tasks like approving Biden’s picks for his own cabinet could be blocked.
While the Democratic margin in both House and Senate will be very narrow, it will still be sufficient to conduct major policy reforms. Even the most conservative Democratic Senators, like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana, are far more liberal than even the most liberal Republicans.
The Democratic agenda is going to be expansive. The first two items of immediate importance will be passing monumental voting rights reforms that have been blocked for a decade by the Republicans, ever since the Supreme Court ruled that much of the Voting Rights Act of 1964 was no longer necessary, and passing substantial COVID relief, including the 2,000 dollar per taxpayer payment that Republicans have been blocking.
In the medium term, the Dem agenda has five key elements. Expanding health care by improving the ACA and adding a public option to insurance choices as Biden promised. Raising the minimum wage to 15 dollars. A major investment to transition America off of fossil fuels in the next 15 years. Making college more affordable for the middle and working class. Comprehensive immigration reform and making DACA permanent while providing a pathway to legal status for the 10 million undocumented residents in the US. Finally, be able to appoint competent and qualified judges to the Federal courts, including the Supreme Court. There is also the small matter of granting statehood to Washington DC, an act that would expand the Senate by two extra seats, both of which would be solidly Democrat-held.
The transformation of Georgia, from a deep red, very conservative southern state, to one that voted for Joe Biden over Trump, and ejected both of its Republican Senators for a Jewish man and Black man, is a great omen for the future of America. In the last 20 years a number of previously solidly Republican states have moved into the Democratic column, voting for the Democrat for President, and electing Democrats to both of their Senate seats. This has happened in Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and this cycle, Arizona and now Georgia. Meanwhile the Democrats are closing the margins rapidly in Texas, North Carolina, and Florida (actually Obama won Florida narrowly twice, and North Carolina once).
Four years ago, the Republicans controlled the White House, House, and Senate, but in the intervening time Trump has managed to lose all three for the GOP. He has been immensely toxic for the future of the Republican Party, and his nonsensical attempts to overturn the results of the November election have been an assault on democracy and the US Constitution.
For the Democrats, this could usher in a period of extended control. The demographic wave that has helped them over the last 20 years will now be augmented by the natural economic rebound that will occur as vaccinations end the COVID pandemic. Biden will win 2024 easily, and help the Democrats continue to hold Congress. It may be quite a while before the GOP gets political control again, and by then the Democrats will have transformed the country.
