Can Musharraf
Escape His Own Trap?
May
25, 2007
President
General Pervez Musharraf has dug himself a very
deep hole. The spiraling crisis of the Chief Justice
of Pakistan has resulted in major bloodshed in
Karachi, and Musharraf’s credibility with
the population of Pakistan, and with Pakistanis
abroad, has taken a major tumble. What was a tactical,
and survivable, political error has now magnified
into something that threatens his grip on power.
It was quite clear when Musharraf basically removed
the Chief Justice back in early March that this
was a major miscalculation on his part. The reaction
throughout the country, and particularly in the
media, was very negative on this power play against
the judiciary. The rough treatment given the Chief
Justice on March 9 became such an embarrassment
that Musharraf had to disavow it and essentially
apologize for it. But he failed to take the critical
next step, which was to withdraw the reference
against the Chief Justice and restore his position
on the court. At that time, it was still feasible
for Musharraf to climb down honorably and to reach
a gentleman’s agreement with the Chief Justice.
But Musharraf refused to take that obvious correct
step, and insisted on going ahead with this bizarre
course. He probably hoped that over time the protests,
which were mainly being carried out by lawyers,
would fizzle and wither away.
Instead, they gathered steam, as the political
parties took this issue as a club to attack Musharraf,
and the Chief Justice began to rally support for
himself across the country. This culminated in
the 24-hour journey by road from Islamabad to
Lahore where he was greeted by throngs of well-wishers
along the way. This massive display of public
support was a profound shock to Musharraf, and
put his government in full-blown panic mode.
When the Chief Justice decided to meet with the
Karachi Bar, Musharraf decided to stop this public
agitation against him. He gave a green light to
the goon squads of the MQM, who answer to their
supreme leader Altaf Hussain, in exile in London,
to rough up anyone coming on the street to support
the Chief Justice. When the CJ flew into Karachi,
and demonstrators took to the street on his behalf,
the MQM responded with violence, killing over
30 people, while the military and police stood
aside. Clearly they were ordered to allow the
MQM to do the dirty work.
But where does Musharraf go from here? He can
no longer craft a workable political system based
on a free election. He needed a friendly Supreme
Court to allow him to subvert the Constitution
and continue to be Chief of the Army Staff while
also being President. It is hard to conceive that
any Pakistani Supreme Court at this point would
rule in his favor on that except at the point
of a gun. So even if he wins the struggle with
Iftikhar Chaudhry, he loses his attempt to fashion
a compliant Supreme Court.
His second option, which is to make a deal with
Benazir Bhutto and let her win a free election
in exchange for another Presidential term for
Musharraf, is now also in serious jeopardy. Given
how much Musharraf has poisoned the game, it would
be a serious mistake for Benazir to save Musharraf
by offering him a sweetheart deal at this point.
In fact, such a move would likely backfire on
the PPP, and seriously reduce its credibility
with the liberal forces in the society that it
claims to speak for.
Why the MQM hitched its wagon so closely to Musharraf
is unclear. By becoming the enforcers of the current
regime, they will have the most to lose if Musharraf
weakens or loses power. They may have made a very
serious error by tying their political fortunes
so closely to the current military regime.
For the last eight years I have argued that the
economic and social reforms of Musharraf would
eventually create a liberal middle-class of Pakistanis
that would demand democracy, regardless of the
authoritarian and corrupt nature of the traditional
Pakistani civil-military elites. Six months ago
I would have said we are still 5-10 years away
from the arrival of that moment. It looks like
I may have been far too pessimistic on the timing.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
