Can
Elections Bring Peace to Iraq?
By Dr Nayyer Ali
US forces have suffered their
second-highest casualty total in November for
the entire post-war period. A large Iraqi city
in the Sunni heartland was heavily assaulted,
with thousands of injured and killed, many of
whom were civilians. Throughout central Iraq
violence is a constant daily feature. Not just
political violence against the US, but also
the common thuggery of carjackings and kidnappings
that is driving the wealthiest and most-skilled
Iraqis to throw in the towel and emigrate. Many
have settled in Amman, Jordan, or are moving
to Damascus.
The interim government in Iraq headed by Iyad
Allawi has declared that elections are to be
held at the end of January. These elections
are not for President or Parliament, but are
for what is to be a Constituent Assembly, whose
task will be to write Iraq’s Constitu
tion. That document will then govern the elections
to immediately follow for Parliament and President,
if the Iraqis end up with a Presidential system.
If Iraq was a single ethnic/religious group,
say Arab Sunnis, this plan might have a chance.
But Iraq is divided into three, and the three
groups have widely differing agendas.
In the north of Iraq are the Kurds, making up
15% of the population. They have their own army
that is well-motivated to fight if need be,
and they have a functioning local government.
For all practical purposes they are independent
of Iraq, and have been spared the bloody postwar
carnage in Baghdad and the regions around it.
99% of the Kurds, if given a choice, would leave
Iraq and create their own state. The only thing
keeping them in the system is intense American
pressure and an American commitment that they
will get maximum federal autonomy in the new
Iraq. But if Iraq does not look like it will
work out, t he Kurds will go their own way in
a heartbeat.
In the south of Iraq lie the Shia, who make
up 60% of the population, but historically have
been relegated to the backseat in Iraq’s
politics since the 1920’s. Saddam’s
regime was particularly hard on the Shias, while
showering favors and power on Sunni regions
willing to cooperate with the Baathist state.
For the Shias, the road is now clear. Support
elections as early as possible, and ensure that
Shias vote as a bloc for Shia candidates who
will then win a handsome majority. If the Shias
can hold together into the elections, they will
have legitimately taken power and will have
the votes to write a Constitution to their liking.
In the Sunni belt to the north and west of Baghdad,
there is little good that seems to be in the
offing from elections. A democratic Iraq will
be dominated by the Shias, with the Kurds looking
on from their autonomous perch in the north.
For th e Sunnis, especially those used to power
and influence in the previous regime, elections
are a useless exercise. The Shias will impose
their democratic will, and Sunni representatives
will be ignored.
These facts explain the dynamic in Iraq these
days. The Kurds are blasé about the impending
vote, as they can rely on their army to defend
themselves if need be. The Shias are eager for
the vote to occur as soon as possible, and have
opposed calls to delay the ballot due to the
disorder in Sunni Iraq. The Shias have also
refused to militarily oppose the occupation,
as they see American power essential to keeping
Iraq together and holding elections. And the
Sunnis want both the ballot delayed and to continue
to fuel an anti-American insurgency that resists
every attempt to stamp it out. For them, the
new Constitution will mean that their privileged
place in Iraq will be gone permanently.
Next week I will discuss the election process,
and put forward an alternative future for Iraq.
Comments can reach me at nali@socal.rr.com.
