The Republicans
Lick Their Wounds
Nobember
24, 2006
After the sound
thrashing the Republicans took at the polls three
weeks ago, the general sense in the country is
that we have finally come back to our senses.
Since 9/11 this nation has been essentially living
under a Bush dictatorship, with the Democrats
thoroughly cowed, and the Republicans all marching
in lockstep with their leader. It was only after
we found out that we were marching over a cliff
that the voters put a stop to this nonsense.
The rout of the Republicans was seen mostly outside
the southern states. In the South actually, the
Republicans did pretty well, the only significant
loss being the senate seat in Virginia, which
the Democrats captured by a razor-thin margin.
This solid showing in the southern states reflects
the bedrock of support that stays with the Republicans
among white southerners.
But outside the South, the Republicans got clobbered.
They lost almost all their House seats in the
Northeast, and lost Senate seats in Rhode Island,
Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, and Montana. In
Ohio, the critical swing state that pushed Bush
into the White House in 2000 and 2004 by small
margins, the Republican party was wiped out at
all levels. Democrats also grabbed control of
several governors’ mansions across the country,
including New York and Ohio. These friendly governors
will assist the next Democratic Presidential candidate
in 2008.
The Republicans are in danger of turning into
a regional party. By capturing the South in 1968,
the Republicans began the drive that allowed them
to win repeatedly in Presidential elections. The
only Democrats to break this lock have been Southerners
themselves, Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992
and 1996. But now instead of a national Republican
party that has broadened to gain critical support
in the South, the Republicans are turning into
a Southern party, while losing its national support.
This is quite a turnaround for the party of Lincoln,
which led the Northern states to victory over
the South in the Civil war. For a century, Republican
was a dirty word in the South. But since 1968,
it became identified with the White establishment,
with religious faith, and with cultural conservatism.
There are still strong pockets of Republican support
in Alaska, Utah, and some of the other smaller
states in the Mountain West. But the heavily populated
coastal states, the upper Mid-West, and border
regions like Missouri and Colorado are now moving
more and more Democrat. The Republicans may be
looking at the South as a liability rather than
an asset, as the rest of the country finds the
Southern-flavored Republicans distasteful.
In 2008, the Republicans will need to nominate
a Northerner, someone who can win in the critical
moderate states that will decide the election,
like Ohio. But if the party remains dominated
by its Southern wing, it may not do that. The
most attractive Republican candidates, Rudy Guiliani
and John McCain, are not from the South. But they
are also not typical Republicans. They have a
more independent streak that may keep them from
getting the nomination.
The Democrats need to build on this win. They
need to show that there is a better way to lead
the country. One that addresses our real problems
without destroying our political values and shredding
our basic human rights and civil liberties. There
is a better way to deal with the problems of this
world. If the Democrats show they can lead, they
will win full control of the government in 2008.
