Shifting Populations
in South Asia
January 06, 2006
The newspapers do a great job
reporting the catastrophe of the day, but often
don’t take the time to look at large trends
that are changing and shaping the world. The biggest
of these is the surge in population. Since the
end of the Second World War, the total number
of people on the planet has tripled. Much of that
growth has been in poorer regions as modern public
health measures led to a dramatic decline in death
rates. For example, in 1940 more than 20% of the
children born in poor countries (they were all
European colonies then) would die before their
first birthday. Now the numbers are 3-7%, depending
on the nation.
The biggest areas of growth have been China and
South Asia. But they tell two very different tales.
China in 1950 had 562 million people. Mao helped
to slow population growth with his disastrous
policies in the 1950s that led to mass famine
which is blamed for the deaths of perhaps 30 million
people. By the 1970s, the communists that ran
China began to see rapid population growth to
be a huge threat to China’s future, and
instituted a very hard-line “one child”
policy. This led to a slamming on the brakes of
population growth, with China reaching a total
of 1.3 billion people today. So in 55 years China’s
population a bit more than doubled. It is projected
to only climb to 1.45 billion by 2050. What is
remarkable about China is that only 400 million
of its people are under 20 years, and that gives
China 900 million adults in the labor pool.
India had 369 million people in 1950, and about
330 million Hindus with 35 million Muslims. Its
population has reached 1080 million today and
is projected to reach 1.6 billion in 2050. Total
fertility rate (TFR, the number of babies the
average woman has in her life) is 2.8 now, and
is projected to drop to 2.2 by 2025. Muslim population
growth rates have been a bit faster than Hindu,
and the Muslim share of India’s population
has risen gradually. While India has tripled,
its Muslim population has risen about four-fold,
to about 145 million. Of India’s population,
440 million are currently under 20, leaving 620
million adults.
Pakistan had 39 million people in West Pakistan
in 1950, and this number is now 162 million, projected
to reach 294 million by 2050. TFR is at 4.1 and
supposed to drop to 2.4 by 2025. 80 million are
under 20 years, a remarkable half of the total.
This leaves Pakistan with only 80 million adults;
so although India is 7 times larger in total population,
if we look only at adults, it is really almost
8 times larger.
Bangladesh had 45 million people in 1950, and
that number has risen to 145 million today and
is on its way to reach 279 million in 2050. The
TFR is at 3.1, but is projected to decline only
to 2.8 by 2025. 65 million are under 20, leaving
80 million adults. The difference between Pakistan
and Bangladesh is accounted for by Pakistan having
an extra 20 million children.
If one looks at the relative Hindu-Muslim balance
in South Asia, there has been a slow but huge
change occurring. In 1950 there were about 330
million Hindus and 115 million Muslims, a ratio
of 3 to 1. In 2050 there will be about 1.25 billion
Hindus and 850 million Muslims, a ratio of 3 to
2.
Another aspect of this to consider is that the
size of the economy is really a function of the
number of adults. One of the reasons for China’s
surge is that the bulk of its population is working-age,
and it has relatively fewer children to take care
of. Pakistan has the opposite problem. Of all
four major countries, Pakistan has the highest
share of children in its population. Despite that,
its economic performance relative to India and
Bangladesh has been pretty good. An excellent
proxy for how the average person is doing in these
countries is the number of cell phones. In India
that has reached 75 million people out of 620
million adults, or about 12%. In Pakistan, there
are now 20 million cell phones connected, out
of 80 million adults, about 25% of the adult population.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
