Elections in Iraq
Iraq is heading for elections
in less than 60 days. The outcome will shape
the possibilities of the future for the Middle
East in many ways. Currently, it looks like
the Shia will win a large majority, and will
be in a position to take real power in Iraq
for the first time in history. This possibility,
given the unrest in the Sunni regions raises
the strong likelihood that Iraq is not viable
as a single state.
The elections themselves suffer from a fatal
flaw. The system is based on national “lists”
rather than geographic constituencies. What
this means is that each voter picks from a choice
of “lists” put forward by various
political parties. The actual number of delegates
to the Constitutional convention awarded to
each party will be based on their share of the
national vote.
This means that voter turnout is extremely important
in deciding who wins, and that bloc voting can
mangle the results. The Shia have worked hard
to put together a unified Shia list, pulling
together Shia of all political persuasions into
a single list. The Shia will then turn out and
vote as a bloc for that list. The Sunnis on
the other hand are divided, and more importantly,
are not going to vote at all. Some have already
announced their intention to boycott the election,
while others will not vote due to violence and
unrest. So even though the Sunnis make up 20%
of Iraq, they may end up with even less than
10% of the delegates. The Kurds will also vote
as a bloc for the two Kurdish parties, and so
will be reasonably represented.
The problem with this is that the resulting
Constitution will not be seen as legitimate
and acceptable by the Sunnis, and the insurgency
will therefore not be affected by the results
of the election. The election is not the way
forward, but will only confirm to the Sunnis
that the process is heavily tilted in favor
of the Shia and Kurds. The alternative that
the US should have pushed for was to have defined
constituencies based on population, like the
congressional districts in the US. So even if
voter turnout in the Sunni region was depressed
compared to the Shias, the Sunnis would still
have elected 20% of the delegates as 20% of
the country is geographically Sunni.
I am becoming more and more concerned that Iraq
cannot be held together without American force,
and eventually the US will tire of the casualties.
This last week the US suffered its 1000th combat
death.
There is another option. It is to divide Iraq
into three nations. Let the Kurds have independence
in the north, and grant the same to the Shias
in the south. The Sunnis can then have their
own country to do as they please. There are
some obvious questions, like what to do about
Mosul, Baghdad, and the oil. Mosul is a city
that would be claimed by both Sunni Arabs and
Kurds, while Baghdad would be claimed by both
Sunni and Shia.
Mosul was majority Kurdish till the early 1990’s
when Saddam began a brutal policy of “Arabizing”
Kurdish regions by forcibly moving in Arabs
and displacing Kurds. As such, the Kurds have
a strong moral claim that Mosul rightfully should
be part of their state. Baghdad has large Sunni
and Shia populations. The city ideally could
be shared by the two new states, but given the
reality of violence that would not likely work.
The obvious geographical choice would be to
separate Baghdad into East and West based on
the Tigris River, giving the East side to the
Sunni state and the West to the Shia.
Iraq’s mammoth oil reserves are conveniently
split into two sets of deposits in the Kurdish
north and Shia south. The new Kurdish and Shia
states would keep those fields. To satisfy the
Sunni claim to their fair share of Iraq’s
oil wealth, both the Kurdish and Shia states
would be required to pay 20% of their oil profits
to the Sunni state for perhaps two or three
decades.
Bush has hitched his exit strategy to early
elections that will yield a legitimate and strong
central Iraqi government. That strategy has
serious flaws and I am concerned is going to
fail. Breaking up Iraq may be a better approach.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
