Iraq Falls
Apart
March
17, 2006
We are now
approaching the third anniversary of the US invasion
of Iraq. In a few weeks the war will enter its
fourth year. The death toll now exceeds 2000 US
soldiers and probably 30,000 direct violent deaths
among Iraqis. The tragedy though shows no sign
of abating despite a series of political events
that the Bush administration hoped would give
them a viable exit strategy.
When Bush invaded Iraq his team had very high
hopes for the end result. Not only would Saddam
be sent packing, but Iraq would be reconstituted
as a liberal, secular democracy. It would by now
have an elected pro-American government that would
allow permanent US military bases, and be the
new centerpiece of US Middle East influence. The
refurbished oil sector would be pumping so many
barrels of crude that world oil prices would decline
to levels below where they were before the war
started. And the democratic example of Iraq would
lead toward a democratic transformation of the
broader Arab world, as dictators would yield to
the new realities.
This entire change was to come at a very low price.
There would be very few US casualties, and the
reconstruction of Iraq would have been paid for
in large part by Iraq’s own oil sales, and
not by the US Treasury.
Needless to say, this entire vision now lies in
ruin. American soldiers die at the rate of 50
per month or more, and the US has directly spent
over 300 billion dollars on this war. Despite
that, for all intents and purposes, the insurgents
have defeated the US in Iraq. If we accept that
wars are essentially political acts, the defeat
of the US political aims means that the US has
been defeated. Saddam certainly hasn’t won
either; in fact, the real winners are the Kurds
in this whole process, and to a lesser extent,
religious Shias and Iran.
The essential problem that the US has not been
able to solve is how to create a real Iraqi state.
In the face of a relentless and ruthless insurgency
based among Iraqi Sunni Arabs, the people of Iraq
have divided sharply along ethnic lines. The voting
in both the December 2004 election for the constitutional
convention and the December 2005 vote for the
new government went entirely along ethnic lines.
Shias dominated by virtue of their 60% share of
the population, with Kurds and Sunnis each polling
about 20%.
Adding to the mix is the retention of powerful
ethnic militias, particularly the Peshmerga of
the Kurds, and the Badr Brigades and Mahdi Army
among the Shia. They are far more potent than
the poorly motivated and trained Iraqi army. No
Iraqi army units are even allowed into the Kurdish
areas.
The ongoing attacks on Shia shrines have brought
Iraq to the verge of an open civil war. When the
Shia perceive the US as protecting the Sunni minority
from their perceived justified desire for vengeance,
the Shia will also turn against the US.
Meanwhile, the war has seen its support evaporate
in the US. Bush’s poll numbers are hitting
record lows. Republicans are frightened of the
election in November, and possible loss of their
control of Congress. And the Republicans know
they cannot go to the voters in 2008 with the
army still in Iraq. Britain just announced they
will pull all their forces out in less than two
years. Bush needs to exit Iraq as quickly as he
can.
But how can he get out without a full-scale civil
war erupting? Even the Sunnis know the consequences
will make Lebanon look like a picnic. And to leave
Iraq in such a convulsed state would be utterly
humiliating for Bush and leave an historical stain
on the United States.
There is only one option left. It is the one I
first mentioned in December of 2004. Iraq will
have to be partitioned into three nations. Iraq
cannot be held together voluntarily. Without massive
force, either by Saddam or the US Army, Iraq has
no realistic chance of becoming a stable and functional
society. The Kurds will be happy to leave Iraq,
as long as they take Kirkuk with them. And the
Shia will also be happy with their own state in
central and southern Iraq. Baghdad will have to
be divided, most logically along the Tigris river,
between the new Sunni and Shia nations. The sooner
everyone accepts this inevitable outcome, the
quicker it can be implemented. Until then, more
innocent lives will be lost in the ongoing civil
war. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
