Blind to the
Future?
February
23, 2007
This year
will mark the 40th anniversary of the occupation
of the West Bank and Gaza by Israel. The territories
were taken in the June 1967 war started by Israel
in a sneak attack on the Egyptian Air Force. Menachem
Begin, future Prime Minister of Israel, described
it as a “war of choice” despite the
standard Zionist Kool-Aid about how Israel faced
elimination by the inept army of Egypt.
After Israel’s stunning and easy win, it
set out to colonize the seized land in an attempt
to realize the Zionist dream of settling all the
Biblical land of Israel. Over the next several
decades, all Israeli governments encouraged and
supported settlements. It is a myth that settlements
were the work of the evil right-wing Ariel Sharon.
In the last 15 years the biggest builder of settlements
was Ehud Barak, who masqueraded as the man willing
to give the Palestinians a state.
Yet after two intifadas, the Israeli government
now pays lip service to the idea that once the
Palestinians create an advanced prosperous democracy
based on non-violence and a love of Zionism in
their little patches of territory, Israel might
talk about a state for them. Actually the Israelis
are so keen on the idea, they won’t stop
with just one Palestinian state, they will happily
grant the Palestinians 12 or 15 statelets. Each
one the size of a postage stamp crammed with people
and surrounded by checkpoints and walls, but they
get their own passport and the right to pick up
their own garbage, so the Palestinians should
be quite pleased. This way, Israel gets to keep
all its settlements which is an imperative for
them. A casual glance at the current map shows
that it is now impossible to create a Palestinian
state. The settlers have succeeded beyond their
wildest dreams and the two-state solution is a
fantasy.
Israel has the best of all possible worlds at
present. The only global superpower believes its
interests and Israel’s are pretty much always
identical. It has successfully defeated the intifada
with walls and 500 checkpoints. It deals firmly
with Palestinian women and children, jailing several
hundred of them at a time. It even denied entry
to the only heart surgeon working in the West
Bank when he tried to come back from a trip abroad.
Israel has a huge nuclear arsenal, a military
that dominates the entire Middle East, and the
support of a wealthy and influential diaspora
of millions of Jews. Its settlers continue to
expand with impunity. Gaza has been turned into
a giant outdoor prison where the inmates get to
maintain order or be shelled. At this point there
is no reason to change the status quo, which is
why Israel has no interest in the condition of
the Palestinians, except to the extent that some
of them need to be assassinated. In contrast its
neighbors are small, poor, and unsophisticated.
But what about the future? Where will things stand
when the newborn child in Ramallah today is teaching
his son how to play soccer? In 2050 the world
will be quite different. Just look at what the
US Census bureau projects as the populations of
the following countries in 2050. Egypt 125 million,
Yemen 70 million, Syria 35 million, Saudi Arabia
50 million, Jordan 12 million, Palestine 10 million,
Iran 80 million, and Iraq 55 million. Pakistan
will be almost 300 million. Israel by contrast
will have 8.5 million people, almost 30% of whom
will be Muslim or Christian.
In Europe and the US the demographic changes will
be significant too. Most European states will
have 10-20% Muslim populations. In America Muslims
should number 8-10 million. In contrast the Jewish
diaspora is rapidly shrinking. America’s
Jewish population is projected to decline from
5 million to less than 3 million, according to
a leading Israeli academic.
Turning to economics, all of the Muslim countries
should have economies 20-30 times larger than
today. In fact many of them are 20 times larger
than they were 50 years ago. But the tough slog
out of the depths of economic backwardness is
now over. It takes just as much effort to go from
300 dollars per capita to 3000 as it does to go
from 3000 to 30,000. This next 50 years will witness
that second leg of development. Pakistan should
reach almost 10 trillion dollars (sustained 6-7%
growth) while Egypt should get to 5 trillion.
Saudi will be 1-2 trillion dollars, as will Iraq.
These massive economies will sustain advanced
military capabilities. Muslim countries should
by then have fully indigenous weapons capabilities.
Pakistan for example already makes its own tanks,
artillery, missiles, submarines, and jet fighters.
They are not as advanced as US weapons, but the
learning curve has begun. A joint weapons program,
similar to what the EU does, is likely to be developed
between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia
in the next decade or two. Finally, Iran, and
perhaps Saudi Arabia and Egypt will have also
acquired nuclear weapons.
Given this state of affairs in a few short decades,
it seems that the strength of Israel’s relative
position in the Middle East is set for a steady
decline. Israel’s interests are not served
by leaders who behave today with no concern about
the future. Conversely, the Palestinians may well
find themselves in a much better position to demand
their rights if they can put up with another generation
of occupation and refugee camps. Comments can
reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com
