Al Gore Should
Run
July
20, 2007
With over a year to go for the
next Presidential election, the campaign is already
in full swing. Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama
lead the Democratic field, while the Republicans
are led by Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John
McCain. However, there is one obvious candidate
who has remained on the sidelines: Al Gore.
July the year before the election seems way too
early to even be paying attention to this question,
but the Presidential election timetable has changed
drastically in this cycle. The main change is
the primary calendar, by which the parties choose
their nominees. In elections past, the first primary
would be New Hampshire in February, followed over
the next several weeks by a slow procession of
states, with the bulk of delegates picked in April
and May. This slow process allowed candidates
to raise modest amounts of funds early, try to
gain traction by winning in the first few states,
and then parley that into fundraising that would
allow them to win the nomination.
But now, the individual states have all moved
up their election dates in a race to become more
important to the candidates. This has pushed the
New Hampshire primary into January, followed by
a massive multi-state primary three weeks later
that includes most of the largest states. Essentially,
the primary season will be over by early March,
when in previous years it is just getting started.
Because of this, candidates need to raise and
spend their money this year to develop national
appeal so that they can win the nomination next
year. Which is why the campaign is already in
full swing. All of the candidates have raised
tens of millions of dollars and put together full
staffs and operations.
On the Republican side, the early front-runner,
Senator John McCain, has stumbled badly. He has
lagged in fundraising, and has had to fire staff
and shrink his operation. His two most senior
aides just quit, signifying how much disarray
there is. McCain was hurt badly by his support
of Bush’s amnesty plans for illegal aliens,
which goes down very badly with conservative Republicans.
McCain’s past record of opposition to tax
cuts and support for campaign finance reform also
cost him support among conservatives. He is now
running a distant third in opinion polls.
Rudy Giuliani is the leader now, but he remains
an unknown quantity to most Republicans. In fact,
Giuliani is a liberal on many social issues, including
his support for abortion rights. In addition,
other than being the mayor of New York on 9/11,
it is hard to see why he is qualified to be President.
He is staking his campaign on convincing the public
terrorism is the greatest issue facing the country,
and only he knows how to deal with it. Never mind
that there has not been a single terrorist attack
in the US since 9/11.
Mitt Romney is running second for the Republicans.
He is not a powerhouse figure though. The former
governor of Massachusetts, he is also a Mormon,
which does not play well with many evangelical
Christians in the Republican party. He also supported
in the past many social issues that most conservatives
opposed. He has now flipped his views to be more
palatable to them, but that will probably not
be sufficient.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama has raised
the most money in either party. His oratorical
skills are excellent, and the country is probably
ready to elect a black man. He has a Muslim grandfather,
and his middle name is Hussein, but that probably
won’t hurt him. However, he is only a first-term
senator, and lacks the experience to be President
at this point. He would make an excellent Vice-Presidential
choice though, and I expect him to be offered
that slot by whoever wins the nomination for the
Democrats.
Hilary Clinton is the front-runner for the Democrats.
She has the experience and the Clinton name behind
her, and a formidable political network. But there
are many in the country that don’t like
her, and there is also a general fatigue with
the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton(?) pattern that
we have fallen into. America wants to vote for
a strong and experienced Democrat, but would like
someone other than Hilary Clinton.
This is where Al Gore comes in. With his experience
and name recognition, he will not be handicapped
by staying out of the race until September or
October. If he announces his candidacy then, he
will still be able to attract high quality people
to his campaign and raise adequate funds. He has
an excellent record in the last eight years of
opposing Bush’s Iraq War before it even
started, and his leadership on global warming
is now being recognized by most as ahead of its
time. Al Gore running with Barack Obama would
be a very strong ticket, and would likely beat
any Republican, who will be running with the albatross
of Iraq around his neck. Comments can reach me
at Nali@socal.rr.com.
