Israel’s
Surprise Offer
June
22, 2007
In a rather
stunning twist to the never-ending saga of the
Arab-Israeli conflict, there are credible reports
that Israel has offered to return the Golan Heights
to Syria in exchange for a peace deal. This is
a golden opportunity, and it would be unfortunate
if Syria does not take advantage of this development.
The Golan Heights are a Syrian plateau captured
by Israel in the 1967 war, exactly 40 years ago,
and officially annexed by Israel in 1982, an annexation
that no other country recognizes as valid. Syria
has always demanded the full return of the Golan
in exchange for peace, but the Israelis have never
been willing to do that. Prime Minister Rabin
in the early 1990’s did put such an offer
on the table, but it was retracted after his assassination
and the subsequent victory of the hawkish Benjamin
Netanyahu in Israeli elections. The next Prime
Minister, Ehud Barak, offered Syria almost all
of the Golan, but insisted on keeping a small
portion that proved to be dealbreaker.
So why now is Israel offering to accede to Syria’s
demands? Prime Minister Olmert is deeply unpopular
over the mishandling of the Lebanon war with Hezbollah
last summer, and his government is in danger of
falling. To achieve a concrete peace with Syria
could revive his political fortunes. Israelis
have long claimed that by giving the Golan back
would place them in a difficult military position,
but the rise of missile and rocket warfare has
shown to the Israelis that real peace is the only
solid basis for their security, not holding this
or that piece of territory. Although there are
significant numbers of Israeli settlers on the
Golan, they could be forced out if needed.
The other major advantage for Israel is the desire
to break the alliance between Syria, Iran, and
Hezbollah. In exchange for finally returning the
Golan, Israel would demand that Syria dissolve
its alliances with Iran and Hezbollah. This would
also make an Israeli-Lebanese peace treaty possible,
and provide Olmert a political way to defeat Hezbollah,
as his military attempt last year floundered.
In addition, Hamas has its top leadership based
in Damascus, and they would lose their Syrian
patron if a deal with Israel happened. Overall,
a successful treaty could reshape Israel’s
strategic situation.
Syria too has much to gain from a peace treaty.
Getting all of the Golan back has been a Syrian
goal for 40 years. For Bashar Assad, it would
give him a basis for legitimacy, as he would have
finally achieved what his father, the prior ruler
of Syria, never could. The Syrians could be persuaded
to abandon the Iranian alliance, but they would
want to obtain a positive relationship with the
West in exchange. After Sadat signed the peace
with Israel in 1979, Egypt was rewarded with a
two billion dollar aid package that was renewed
every year since then. Over 50 billion dollars
have flowed to Egypt in the last few decades from
the US. Syria too would want to have their regime
legitimized by the US, a remarkable turn of events
given that many neo-cons had targeted Syria next
for regime change in the immediate aftermath of
the 2003 conquest of Saddam’s Iraq. Finally,
there is the UN tribunal looking into the murder
of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, which
is pursuing the Syrian role in that murder. This
investigation is very embarrassing for the Syrians,
and could lead all the way to Bashar Assad himself,
possibly resulting in an international indictment
for murder against him or other senior Syrians.
A peace treaty with Israel could create political
pressure to squash the investigation.
For the Palestinians, it would actually be a good
thing for the Syrians to make this deal. It would
establish again the precedent that only a full
Israeli withdrawal from captured territory will
result in peace. And it will again force Israel
to withdraw settlers. By reducing Israel’s
dispute with the Arabs in general to a conflict
only with the Palestinians, it will force the
Israelis to finally confront the need to deal
directly with the issue of how to equitably share
the Holy Land with the Palestinians, who will
soon be the majority living there. Assad should
respond favorably to the Israeli offer. Comments
can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
