December 07 ,2012
The Republicans Have a Problem with White People
President Obama’s clear victory in the 2012 election has resulted in a mixed reaction by Republicans. Obama could and should have been beaten given the weak state of the economy, and yet he easily won by 51-48% in the popular vote, and by a larger spread in the Electoral College. In fact, of the 10 swing states where the election was fought, he won 9 and just narrowly lost North Carolina.
For Republicans, the reaction has ranged from denial that there is a problem to outright panic at the demographic decline of the party. Obama has put together a Democratic coalition consisting of young people, women, minorities, and highly educated Whites that represent a clear majority of the national electorate.
Some Republicans look at this and deny anything is seriously wrong. Romney almost won, and it is hard to beat an incumbent. If the close states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado had all gone to Romney instead, he would now be President-elect. Besides, Romney ran a poor campaign, he was a flawed candidate (hiding his tax returns, the 47% remark, his lack of credentials on foreign policy), and Obama had a much better ground game that turned out the vote in critical states. Even though Obama won, among White voters Romney did exceptionally well, getting 60% of the vote.
Other Republican strategists are not so sanguine. There are voices that feel the Republican party is alienating minorities, particularly the growing Latino vote, and its stance on social issues of abortion and gay marriage are out of step with women and with young voters in general. These Republican leaders would like to see the party step back from its stance on immigration, undocumented workers, and social issues, and instead emphasize a purer economic message of low taxes and less regulation. All Republicans still appear to hold to this economic message, and express a general opposition to what they call the “Welfare State” by which they mean a government that is too coddling of the lazy and irresponsible.
While some of these ideas may have merit, the Republicans are vastly underestimating the significance of this election. This was the “Perfect Storm” of conditions to maximize the White vote for the Republicans. It will never happen again. We had an African-American candidate running as a Democrat with a bad economy. Romney was able to get 60% of the White vote, but the next couple Democrats will likely be White and be running with more favorable economic conditions, which means that the White vote will not be so lopsided. In addition, though Romney won 60% of all White voters, he only won 51% of Whites under age 30. Many of these voters have now voted twice for Obama, and many remember the disastrous Bush years. If the economy picks up, as I expect, they will be voting Democrat in 2016, and their connection to the Democratic Party will start to harden. The core Republican voters are literally going to die off in the next decade and be replaced by a more balanced split. Younger White voters also have a larger share that are highly educated with post-graduate degrees. The majority of these highly educated Whites vote Democratic.
By itself, a split White vote would not spell doom for the Republicans, but since minority votes are about 28% of the total, the huge lead that the Democrats have with them means that it is almost impossible for the Republicans to win the White House with their current policy positions. Even Asian-Americans voted 70% for Obama, and they tend to be hardworking, prosperous, and educated. So why are they Obama voters? Because in the Republicans they see a group that doesn’t really accept them as Americans, and they see echoes of that attitude in the whole Republican rejection of Obama as not born in America, or a closet Muslim socialist. Asian-Americans see Republicans as a Whites-only party.
The other problem for Republicans is their attack on the welfare state. For many minorities and young people, they don’t see the welfare state as evil or overdone. What is the American welfare state if we really look at how the money is spent? The two biggest chunks are Social Security and Medicare, programs that provide a modest pension and pay for the health care of retired people. The other pieces are unemployment insurance, food stamps, welfare, Medicaid (medical care for the poor and pay or of nursing home care for the elderly), and student loans and grants. If the Republicans are offering a society that abolishes these programs in exchange for lower taxes, while the Democrats want to keep them in exchange for higher taxes, the Democrats are going to win that argument.
The Republicans have actually boxed themselves into a corner, their stance on social issues and their approach to minorities limit their appeal, while their core economic argument does not make much sense to large sections of the electorate. They have a base of support at about 45% of the electorate, but even that has room to shrink. We are entering a prolonged era of Democratic dominance at the national level. The 2016 election is going to be a blowout win for the Democratic nominee, that may even be Hilary Clinton.
