November
15, 2007
What a Mess!
Pervez Musharraf has made a horrible
mess of the political situation in Pakistan by
his desperate declaration of a state of emergency.
This second coup, in essence conducted against
the very system he set up, has terribly damaged
his credibility and standing both in Pakistan
and throughout the world. Why did he do this?
The short answer is that the Chief Justice of
Pakistan, who won a bruising battle with Musharraf
last spring, was poised to undo the solution that
Musharraf had worked out for the politics of Pakistan
going forward. Musharraf had agreed to a complex
deal with Benazir Bhutto which involved Bhutto’s
tacit support of Musharraf’s reelection
to another five years as Pakistan’s President
by the current National Assembly, and in return
he pardoned Bhutto, allowed her back into politics,
and promised to doff his uniform once the deal
was sealed. And if the PPP won the upcoming election,
Benazir would get another bite at the apple and
be the Prime Minister again.
Although Benazir was fine with this arrangement,
many other players in Pakistan were not, chief
among them Nawaz Sharif, who as another former
Prime Minister wanted to be back into the system
too. Sharif had been in exile since Musharraf
deposed him and then deported him in 2000. His
attempt to return to Pakistan in September was
aborted when we was forced onto a plane bound
for Saudi after landing in Islamabad. Nawaz supporters
turned to the Supreme Court, asking for a contempt
of court ruling against Shaukat Aziz for deporting
Sharif after the Court had validated his right
to return. They also filed a petition to declare
illegal Musharraf’s reelection as President
and to disqualify him on constitutional grounds
from holding the office again.
The Supreme Court then held Pakistan’s political
stability and future in its hands. It could comply
with the letter of the law, which would have resulted
in rulings against Musharraf on both counts, or
it could look at the bigger picture of facilitating
Pakistan’s democratic transition. In the
long run, the most important political step to
accomplish this year was to get Musharraf out
of uniform and make him rule as a civilian while
returning the military hierarchy back to its proper
role in the country. For a nation and a court
which has rarely acted with extreme integrity,
to pick this moment to flex its moral muscles
was ill-judged. Apparently, the Supreme Court
was going to rule against Musharraf and void his
Presidency. This was picked up by the intelligence
services through wiretapping of the Chief Justice
(everyone has plenty of mud on their hands), and
left Musharraf with few good options. His preferred
solution was now in ruins. He could either accept
the Court’s ruling and fade away into the
sunset, or he could fight back with the real power
at his disposal. The Supreme Court had to be either
incredibly naïve or power-drunk to not consider
what was going to be the outcome of their decision.
Musharraf chose a pre-emptive strike, declaring
the emergency with the primary purpose to get
rid of the troublesome judges. At this writing
9 Supreme Court justices and about 45 high court
justices have been dismissed. This all-out war
against the independence of the judiciary has
played terribly both in the country and abroad.
The attempt to stifle the flow of criticism and
information by shuttering the private TV channels
has done more harm than good to his position.
Can Musharraf survive this round of turmoil? It
is possible, but things will have to break his
way. The dissent cannot spread to average Punjabis
and Karachiites. He must reestablish his bona
fides with the liberal intellectuals by convincingly
turning against the terrorists and extremists
that have been destabilizing the country rather
than tolerating them. And he will have to reinstate
the evicted judges and allow free elections under
a caretaker government. He will need an understanding
with the judiciary that his reelection to another
five years as President will stand in exchange
for this package. But it might be too late to
iron out such a deal.
If the business community becomes convinced that
Musharraf is more harm than good at this point,
or if the senior Army brass think that too much
negative sentiment toward the military is being
generated by Musharraf, then his days in power
may come to an end.
Pakistan still needs another 5-10 years to swell
the middle-class to a size that will dominate
politics. Until then the venal and corrupt politicians
of the feudal system will still hold the upper
hand, which makes the future without Musharraf
a true leap into the dark. Comments can reach
me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
