October
12, 2007
Will Musharraf
Wriggle Through?
Facing the
most complex and severe challenge to his rule
over Pakistan, Musharraf has defied pundits’
expectations by coming through the recent political
turmoil essentially intact.
A month ago, Musharraf had lost a bruising battle
with the Supreme Court, was being openly challenged
by Nawaz Sharif and the smaller political parties,
and was desperately trying to work out a deal
with Benazir Bhutto. His chance of getting another
term as Pakistani President seemed to be hanging
by a thread as civil society and the media were
anticipating (hoping for?) a political earthquake.
But in the last four weeks, things have turned
in Musharraf’s favor sharply. First came
the confrontation with Nawaz Sharif as he attempted
to jumpstart a revolution by returning to Pakistan.
This ended in abject failure as the people of
Pakistan did not seem too excited at the prospect
of the return of Nawaz. His lame assertion that
he never made a deal with Musharraf to leave the
country did not help his credibility with Pakistanis.
As there was no people power on his behalf, the
government found it rather easy to dispose of
his bid. Nawaz was offered a jail cell and a day
in court in Pakistan on the previous corruption
charges, or a one-way ticket back to Saudi. Predictably,
Nawaz was too used to comfort to spend any time
in Musharraf’s jail, and headed back to
Jeddah. This time, the Saudis have decided to
make him abide by his agreement and have kept
him incommunicado.
The second step was his decision to publicly announce
that he will doff the uniform if reelected President.
While this was mocked as essentially “extortion”
on the part of Musharraf, the critics have it
all wrong. There is a certain faction of idealists
who hate Musharraf and simply cannot abide an
evolutionary transition to civilian rule that
includes him. The most important thing for a return
to Pakistani democracy is not clemency for Benazir
and Nawaz, but getting Musharraf out of uniform
and making him a civilian President whose authority
and power is derived from the Constitution and
not the military. If giving him another five years
is the price to be paid for this, it is far preferable
than an attempted revolution and the inherent
chaos and destruction that would bring. Musharraf
has promised to doff the uniform in the past,
but this public commitment carries much more weight,
and he will have little chance of reneging on
the bargain.
The third step was the implicit acceptance of
Musharraf’s offer by the Supreme Court.
The Court ruled by a 6 to 3 margin in favor of
Musharraf running for reelection to the Presidency
while in his uniform. Several challenges were
made to this, and according to the letter of the
Constitution the challenges were quite valid.
But the Court acted with wisdom and the national
interest in view and not just the narrow letter
of the law. If the Court had prohibited Musharraf’s
candidacy, this would have been tantamount to
an all-out war between the Court and the politicians
on one side and the army on the other. The consequences
of that war could not be good for the country.
Better to give Musharraf his second term in exchange
for ending his military service.
So where do we go from here? With Musharraf reelected
by the current Parliament, his position will not
be threatened by a less friendly incoming Parliament.
Therefore, his need to massively rig the forthcoming
election has been greatly diminished. He will
however prefer to have a Parliament that is not
totally hostile to him. As such he probably would
like to see a Parliament dominated by PML-Q, PPP,
and MQM, with the MMA and PML-N weakened. I expect
the playing field to be tilted in favor of such
an outcome.
Nawaz acted too hastily, and his future in Pakistani
politics looks very bleak. Benazir also has been
weakened, as Musharraf no longer needs her to
be reelected President. However, he might find
her to be a useful coalition partner, and if the
PPP ends up the biggest party in Parliament, a
pardon for Benazir may come about. But at this
point, in contrast to three weeks ago, it is Musharraf
with the upper hand. On the other hand, the PPP
now can campaign without the stigma of providing
Musharraf a bargain.
Pakistan’s transition to democracy should
be done gradually and in a sustainable manner.
This summer has seen major progress on the independence
of the judiciary and freedom of the press, two
key pillars of democracy. The next steps are getting
the President out of uniform, and holding relatively
clean elections. After that there need to be significant
constitutional reforms. But the main point is
that Pakistan needs evolution, not revolution.
Revolutions are much too destructive and unpredictable.
They should be avoided at all costs. Comments
can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com
