January 14 , 2011
Pakistan in Chaos
The assassination of Salmaan Taseer, Governor of Punjab, by his own bodyguard was an awful start to the new year after a particularly terrible 2010 for Pakistan. Taseer was murdered for his outspoken opposition to religious fanatics and in particular to the blasphemy law that is used as a weapon against religious minorities, often in personal disputes. Perhaps this terrible act will shock the conscience of the nation to finally realize that extremist Muslims are in fact a real problem all across the nation, and not just a CIA or RAW plot.
There is no sanction in the Qur’an to execute those who speak ill of the Prophet or of Islam or the Qur’an. How can a Muslim nation take the life of a citizen for a crime that the Qur’an itself does not recognize. “There is no compulsion in religion” is what the Qur’an says. Life on Earth is a test for all humans, and we are judged for our piety in the eyes of God, not in the eyes of any human court. The thoughts in our heads are only known to us and God; how can any government impose the ultimate punishment for mere thought or speech?
Besides the murder of Taseer, we have the spectacle of the near collapse of the PPP government after the MQM decided to quit the coalition. The PPP could now be tossed out of power and new elections held if the opposing parties decide to push for a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly. But if that happened we would be in for even greater political chaos, as the likely winner would be the PML-N, bringing Nawaz Sharif back to power. He would then face off against Asif Zardari, who still has 3 more years on his Presidential term. Pakistan’s governing structure would not be able to handle a divided Prime Minister and President. Three more years of chaos and terrible governance would be the consequence. This stems from the fact that the President remains rather powerful, even though he is not directly elected and Pakistan is supposed to be a parliamentary democracy. The dysfunctional Constitution will continue to hinder political maturity.
Meanwhile, the nation faces huge challenges that the political class consistently ignores while wasting its time and energy attacking each other and filling pockets. The economy remains moribund with inflation over 10%, and growth for this year projected at a mere 2.5%, barely ahead of the population growth.
Over the last three years Pakistan’s economy has grown less than 10% while India’s has leaped over 20%. While Pakistan and India were still at similar level of development as recently as 2007, a gap has opened up and will continue to grow rapidly. India is taking off and will likely see 8% growth for the next two decades. Pakistan is floundering. The national debt is growing to over 70% of GDP this year; it was down to almost 50% when Shaukat Aziz left office. Since then the government has had to beg the IMF for billions in loans. Despite the loans, massive remittances of more than 7 billion dollars per year, and a giant US aid package, the economy goes down the tubes. Who is to blame? Who takes responsibility for this massive display of complete incompetence? Even though there is no economic growth, the government still can’t keep the lights on, as load-shedding remains a huge issue.
In foreign policy the government remains confused. Its policy on Afghanistan is nonsensical. There is clearly a desire to keep a “Taliban option” in play, yet extremist elements in the tribal belt have created havoc in Pakistan.
The army cleared South Waziristan, but North Waziristan and other tribal regions remain havens for militants. On the other hand, Pakistan just signed an agreement to actually build the TAPI (Turkmenistan/Afghanistan/Pakistan/India) gas pipeline. This multibillion dollar project is meant to bring much needed energy supplies to Pakistan and to earn transit fees for gas going to India. But how can Pakistan support such a project while at the same time permitting an insurgency to use its soil that would see such a pipeline as target number one? Who would actually rely on such a vulnerable pipeline to supply energy to their nation?
This democratic interlude since the end of Musharraf has been going very poorly. The politicians claimed they had learned their lessons, and would act with maturity and serve the nation. The PPP has been a huge disappointment, and a Nawaz Sharif government will also be a reign of error. India has created a political system that, while still full of corruption and dysfunction, provides good enough governance that the nation is developing rapidly. It is a shame that we will have to wait 20 years for Pakistan’s politicians and electorate to perhaps get to that level. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
