March 06, 2008
Democracy and Pakistan
By Dr Nayyer Ali
I think this has been a great election for Pakistan, but let’s remember this is the start, not the finish. There was a reason that Musharraf’s coup in 1999 was greeted with a sense of relief by the vast majority, including many of us here in the US. And there is a reason why he managed to keep his popularity at 60% for seven years, an unheard of performance for just about any leader. Mush’s lack of a political imagination was his ultimate downfall, as he could not see that the best way to negotiate 2007 was to pursue a truly democratic reelection for himself and his party.
Events have also shown how absolutely vital it was to get Musharraf to voluntarily remove his uniform. That was the critical step in this whole process. If he was still COAS, this whole scenario would look totally different. He deserves credit for taking that step.
The questions going forward are many. Do PPP and PML-N truly intend to cohabitate in power, and how long will the goodwill last? Who will be the Prime Minister? If it is a person of real integrity and stature, then this process has a chance, and obviously Aitzaz Ahsan needs serious consideration. The flip side is if Zardari intends to be the real power behind a puppet Prime Minister where will that leave Pakistan’s political process? Will not democracy then be stillborn?
What if the natural rivalry of PPP and PML-N prevent a coalition? The PML-N wants the judges reinstated, which likely means that Musharraf’s reelection will be voided, and that the NRO that pardoned Asif Zardari on corruption would also be invalidated, which is why the PPP may not be interested in that. Musharraf cannot be impeached for now as the Senate remains unchanged and would not provide the 2/3 majority needed for impeachment. PPP can still form a government by bringing together ANP, MQM, and PMLQ. This would actually from a policy standpoint be a more logical scenario, as all these parties are much closer in terms of policy than PML-N is to the PPP.
Can the PMLQ persist long term as a Punjabi-based liberal/free-market party, or is it now a shipwreck waiting to sink? I think there is room for such a party from a political standpoint, but is the PMLQ capable of occupying that space? It is interesting to note that although they the Q won fewer seats than PML-N, they actually got a total of 8 million votes nationwide, compared to 6.5 million for Nawaz and 15 million for the PPP.
Musharraf has been defeated politically, and for all practical purposes his power in Pakistan has been almost completely demolished. It is an amazing and sudden change. But let us remember the pillars it was built on: a new media, a rising middle class, increased literacy, diminished poverty, a potent civil society movement based on urban professionals (lawyers, journalists etc), and the communication revolution. All these are the byproducts and results of Musharraf’s economic and social progress of the last eight years.
The challenges for sustaining democracy will turn on the quality of governance. Can the new dispensation be based on merit and not patronage? Will we again have finance ministers who don’t know how Pakistan’s bonds are priced? Will the long stretch of growth that the economy has experienced be sustained or come to halt? The key economic challenges for the next 24 months include electricity shortfall, inflation, trade deficit, sustaining high growth rates, and maintaining an open and ongoing privatization policy. Will the new government put forward an economic team that inspires confidence or brings back memories of the 1990s? Will we see further progress on education and healthcare and how rapidly? Will there be a liberal trend in social and cultural life? How about India?
The main political challenge will be the issue of extremist violence. It is reasonable to attempt to talk to these people, but in the end they will likely need to be defeated by the army. Will the new government have the stomach for that?
Going forward, all those who supported a return to democracy must now work doubly hard to ensure that it actually delivers good governance. The freedom of the media, which was so thoroughly violated in the 1990’s by NS and BB, must be protected. The media must be an extremely aggressive watchdog. Civil society must now act to prod good policy and not just patronage from the next government. And when the government does incorrect things it must be held to an even higher standard than was used with the Musharraf regime. Only by demanding excellence can we keep this project from unraveling again. Comments can reach me at nali@socal.rr.com.
