October 29 , 2010
Another Episode of Military Rule?
I do not write these words lightly, but we are headed for another episode of military rule in Pakistan. The current situation is becoming unbearable and pressure is steadily mounting for the military to step in. How did we get here?
In 2008, President Musharraf carried out truly free and fair elections, at least in terms of the actual voting. The end result was that a PPP government came to power, and eventually forced Musharraf to resign later that year, to be replaced by Asif Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto. This PPP government came to power with some very special responsibilities. It had to show that the political class was actually capable of running Pakistan in a credible and competent manner. At the time, inflation was accelerating past 10%, there was a power shortage, and the Taliban were gaining strength in Afghanistan and mounting a comeback after six years of relatively weak performance. The PPP government had some useful building blocks for creating a viable democratic government. They enjoyed popular legitimacy, the country was basically economically sound, with six solid years of strong growth and rising remittances, and the US was committed to funding generous foreign aid. A vibrant private media was capable of acting as a watchdog, and the judiciary had a new sense of independence and legitimacy once the Chief Justice was restored.
Unfortunately, the Zardari government thoroughly squandered all of these advantages. The economy has collapsed over the last two years despite record remittances and 3.5 billion dollars per year in US aid money. Inflation, rather than falling, has only gotten worse despite the weak economy. The electricity crisis, which the PPP vowed to fix within a year, is even worse than it was in 2007. Meanwhile, the politicians are tearing each other apart with abandon. Zardari, in order to keep his rank and file happy, has grotesquely enlarged the Prime Minister’s cabinet so that there are now 60 ministers and another 60 deputy ministers. This is utterly absurd, and many of them are taking full advantage to pillage the state.
The security situation has completely collapsed. 15,000 Pakistanis have been killed in terrorist related violence in the last year. There has been massive loss of life since the PPP came to power. This puts the lie to those who claim that the scourge of terrorism in Pakistan could only be ended by a democratic government. So far they have made things far worse.
The final blow has come with the massive floods of September. With much of the country under water and 12 million displaced, Zardari flies off to have a good time in London. The rescue and recovery efforts of the government have been horribly inept and inadequate. They compare very poorly against the efforts mounted five years ago during the Kashmir earthquake. The legitimacy of the Zardari government is now in tatters, and his support among the public is abysmally low in opinion polls.
In Pakistan’s history, the army has never mounted a coup that was unpopular. Each time is has stepped in, the political class had already laid the groundwork of thoroughly discrediting themselves. Who really thinks at this point that the PPP can save Pakistan, or that Nawaz Sharif is really the answer to challenges of today? Those who have argued for democracy spin many solid academic theories, but when the face we put to those theories is Asif Zardari or Nawaz Sharif, don’t those theories fall apart?
There are many impediments to another military coup. The first would be the US reaction. But America may be getting exasperated dealing with the ineffectual and corrupt Zardari, and might prefer the clarity of speaking plainly with the army. The media and the judiciary are also independent and they would be a wild card. But if the public are solidly behind a return to military rule, the media and courts will go along.
I do not think a coup would result in direct military government. This time around what will likely happen is that the PPP will be turned out by the army, to be replaced by a civilian caretaker government of technocrats. The army will control defense and foreign policy directly, with the technocrats tasked with development and economic policy. This is similar to the Musharraf/Aziz scenario that was rather successful up till 2007. I give the current government another six months to get their act together. If the country continues its descent into chaos, the result will be inevitable.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
