October 31, 2008
A Year after the Annapolis Peace Conference
Almost a year after the Annapolis Peace Conference, which was meant to restart real talks between the Palestinians and Israelis after an eight-year hiatus, the Israelis have not been able to make the real decisions needed to make peace. The real hard question, whether the Israelis are willing to pull out of the West Bank, dismantle the settlements, and give the Palestinians full and complete independence, was not something the Israeli government or public was willing to actually confront. Instead, the Israelis engaged in meaningless conversations with President Abbas, with no real discussion of the main issues. After a year, nothing had been achieved.
But for Israel, time is no longer clearly on their side. The Israelis are fearful of the effects of demographic changes that will make the Palestinians the majority of all the people in the land between the Jordan River and the sea. Meanwhile, the Palestinians are saying that if they see no real progress, they will drop the idea of an independent Palestinian state, and simply demand equal citizenship in a Greater Israel. But that will be an Israel in which non-Jews are the majority, a prospect that makes the whole idea of Zionism very problematic.
In this context, some among Israel’s leadership are having a change of heart. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has resigned amid scandal, but his parting words are interesting. Olmert throughout his life was a right-wing hawk, in fact, he opposed every Israeli peace agreement with the Arabs, including the 1979 treaty with Egypt and the 1993 Oslo Accords with the Palestinians. But at the end of his political life he offered a mea culpa. He said that he had been in fact mistaken his whole life, that Israel cannot annex the Palestinian territories, and that the only answer is for Israel to withdraw from almost all of the West Bank and turn East Jerusalem over to the Palestinians. It’s too bad he had his epiphany just as he was losing his power. He has had over two years in office, and could have made such a deal with the Palestinians, but couldn’t see the clear choice he needed to make.
Beyond Olmert, the Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, has now said that Israel is looking again at the Arab League Peace Plan, which the League approved back in 2002. This was the offer that all Arab countries would recognize Israel and establish relations if Israel fully withdrew from the occupied territories and offered a just solution to the refugee problem. For the last six years, Israeli governments rejected this plan because they simply wanted to hold on to much more, but now they are willing to actually look at it.
The Israelis also opened indirect negotiations with Syria in the last six months through Turkey. The Syrians want all of the Golan Heights back, a piece of land that Israel permanently annexed in 1982. Syria would likely give Israel what it wants in terms of stopping support for Hamas and Hezbollah and its links with Iran, if the Israelis could bring themselves to departing from their conquered lands.
It is not clear if the Israelis are serious even at this point. The Israeli leaders make some interesting noises, but in reality they continue to hold the Palestinians in total subjugation while building more and more settlements. Judged by their behavior rather than their statements, they are still highly expansionist and not interested whatsoever in peace. Whether that changes may have more to do with Iran and its nuclear program than anything else.
The next President will likely make clear that the US will not attack Iran, and will simply try to contain an eventually nuclear-armed Iran. While US interests can be maintained by a policy of deterrence, Zionism cannot. A nuclear Iran will cast a shadow over Israel, and likely lead to an exodus of Jews, especially among the young. Meanwhile, the process of bringing more Jews to Israel will come to a halt. The only thing the Israeli government can do to stop this is to get Israel accepted by its neighbors and the Muslim world, and the price of that will be a full withdrawal from the Palestinian territories. The next President should make these choices clear to Israel, and push them to do what is ultimately going to be in the best interest of Israel and the US.
