November 05 , 2010
Pakistan ’s Misguided Afghan Strategy
It is now almost nine years since the Taliban were kicked out of Kabul, and yet the war in Afghanistan continues to rage. Part of the problem was George Bush’s decision to ignore the rebuilding of Afghanistan, and focus on invading and occupying Iraq. But the other half of the problem has been Pakistan’s insistence on supporting and maintaining the Taliban as part of its strategic security policy.
For decades, Pakistan viewed Afghanistan as a potential danger that was best handled by installing a Pakistan-friendly regime in Kabul. In the 1960s the Afghan king would make noises about claiming NWFP as belonging to Afghanistan. This was based on the notion that all Pashtuns should be in one country. Needless to say, Pakistan saw this as threatening, and has always demanded that Kabul formally recognize the Durand Line as the permanent border, something no Afghan government has ever done.
In the 1980s Afghanistan was occupied by Soviet forces trying to uphold a communist government in Kabul. Pakistan, along with the US and Saudi Arabia, deployed a counterstrategy of supporting a jihad of anti-communist Afghans. The Soviets were eventually worn down and they left in 1988, but the communist government held power until 1992, when the collapse of the Soviet Union deprived it of its main source of weapons and aid.
In the 1990’s, Afghanistan broke apart into warring factions dominated by a Northern Alliance of non-Pashtuns (with ties to Iran and India), and a southern Pashtun force organized and supported by Pakistan that became the Taliban around 1995. Pakistan wanted the Taliban to control Afghanistan, and with its help, the Taliban had reduced the Northern Alliance to 10% of the country by 2001. Taliban rule was a disaster for the people of Afghanistan, girls were banned from school, and boys didn’t get much education either, while there was no real development or progress, and Afghanistan descended into barbarism. But this mattered not a whit to Pakistan, which cared only that a friendly regime was in power in Kabul.
After 9/11 and the dispersal of the Taliban, Afghanistan gained a government that was dominated by Northern Alliance figures. The relationship with Pakistan has been frosty, and sometimes hostile. India has deployed foreign aid and diplomacy to maximize its influence, to the consternation of Pakistan.
Pakistan however has responded with a disastrous policy choice. The decision to play both ways, to support the US in its war on Al-Qaeda, while at the same time supporting the Taliban and giving them sanctuary and assistance, has made a mess for Pakistan. Pakistan’s image around the world has suffered, and it is widely seen as being an incubator of terrorism. The ongoing violence in Afghanistan has prevented Afghanistan’s transition into a stable state, and has prolonged the US presence there.
But more importantly, the various extremist groups and actors have melded into one. A Pakistani Taliban came into existence, which was not present 10 years ago. They seized Swat for a few months, and have created havoc with bombings and terror attacks throughout Pakistan. 25,000 Pakistanis have died in violence related to these extremists in the last two years. Meanwhile, the United States is carrying out drone strikes at a very rapid rate to keep the Taliban at bay, enraging Pakistani public opinion. And Al-Qaeda continues to operate in the Tribal Belt, now training European Muslims to carry out terror attacks in Europe.
There is a different path. Pakistan needs to give up on the Taliban option. It must clean out the Tribal Belt and roll up all these extremists. There are no “good” Jihadists. This does not mean that Pakistan has to sacrifice its national security interests. A more sophisticated approach will result in the best outcome of all. Pakistan must embrace Afghanistan. Afghanistan has no choice, its main trade and traffic linkages all run through Pakistan. Pakistani businesses are best positioned to enter and participate in Afghanistan’s economy. Pakistan is Afghanistan’s natural trade partner. Afghan students should be in Pakistani universities. Pakistani banks should be in Afghanistan. A strategy that emphasizes these elements will result in an Afghanistan that will be a good neighbor, not a danger.
Pakistan can leverage these advantages over the next decade to have the strongest position in Kabul of any of the regional players. And the people of Pakistan will be spared the violence and extremism that the Jihadist approach has brought.
