July 27 ,2012
Romney, Obama, Virginia and Iowa
The Summer Olympics will distract Americans for two weeks, but after that the Presidential election will dominate the news till November. There are really only 60-75 days left for either side to take a solid lead. By mid-October the electorate will have mostly made up its mind. So both sides must take a very hard look at how to get to the White House.
Unlike most countries, America does not directly elect its President based on the popular vote. Instead, it does so state by state, with each state weighted by population in the Electoral College. There are 538 votes total at stake, and California alone has 55. The winner of each individual state gets all of its electoral votes, which is how George W. Bush became President in 2000 despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore nationwide. As Romney and Obama try to capture the White House, they both must carve a map that gives them the 270 Electoral votes needed to win the election.
In 2008, Obama won easily, and his large win in the popular vote translated into a sizable win in the Electoral College on the backs of taking traditionally Republican states of Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina in addition to grabbing swing states of Florida and Ohio.
In 2012, if either Obama or Romney can build a substantial lead in the popular vote and win 52% or more, then they will win the election undoubtedly. But so far, neither side has been able to build a real lead. The polls have bounced around, and on average Obama has clung to a narrow 1-2 point lead in the popular vote, but with 6-8% of voters still undecided. If the election comes down to a very narrow 51-49 split, then how a very select group of states (the “swing” states) vote will determine the winner. Both Obama and Romney have a strong core of states that they will win in November no matter what. Texas and Georgia are voting for Romney, California, New York, and Illinois will be voting for Obama. This core group gives Obama 221 Electoral votes and Romney 181 votes. So how does Romney win?
For starters, he has to win the Republican states that are close, namely Missouri and North Carolina. He will then also need Florida and Ohio to vote for him. If he can accomplish that it will bring him into a competitive position, but he will still be 17 votes short of being President. It is those last 17 votes that Obama is going to do his best to deny Romney.
Obama has a strong base of 221 votes, but for him to win he will need to also keep Wisconsin and Michigan, traditionally Democratic states on his side. He will also need to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire. All of those states, while close in the polls, will most likely go to Obama unless Romney is winning easily nationwide. In a tight race, those states are going to Obama rather than Romney. That leaves only two states that will decide a very tight election.
Iowa and Virginia will occupy the center of the chessboard in this election. For Romney to win, he will need to win both of those states. For Obama, he will need to win one of them to regain the White House. When election night rolls around, keep a close eye on who wins Virginia and Iowa, it will tell you all you need to know.
Obama has a lot more room to give on the map. He can lose Florida and Ohio and North Carolina and still win. Romney needs to run the table and not lose any of the close states.
Could anything happen between now and November to break the election in either direction? An economic meltdown, perhaps the breakup of the Eurozone, could break Obama’s campaign. For Romney, if his tax returns reveal something very damaging that could hurt. Otherwise, there will likely be no surprises. Even the debates will probably be a draw, both Obama and Romney are competent debaters and will not be able to change many minds. The ground game in terms of turning out voters at the polls may make the difference in a few states and does represent a bit of a wild card.
