June 15 , 2018
Pakistan Goes to the Polls in July
Pakistan is going to the polls in July as the five-year term of the PML-N has ended. The question is whether Pakistan is making progress toward becoming a full-fledged democracy, or is the voting a fig leaf that obscures the real power still being wielded by the “Deep State”?
In Pakistan the “Deep State” is thought of as the senior military and its allies, which include to some extent the Supreme Court, the civil service, and many of the commentators in the electronic media. The censoring of Geo TV and what appears to be a rather blatant attempt to put up Imran Khan as the preferred candidate of the military to block a win by the PML-N are offered as evidence of this.
So is the Supreme Court judgment that forced Nawaz Sharif to resign from being Prime Minister and being slapped with a lifetime ban from holding elective office in Pakistan. All of these facts certainly should give anyone hoping Pakistan become a real democracy with civilian control of foreign policy and defense policy cause for major concern. Some think that Pakistan has regressed significantly on this path. But I think that is being way too pessimistic.
There have been major structural changes in Pakistani politics over the last 20 years. First and foremost, the era of martial law is over. We have had two free elections back to back and a third is about to happen (although there are forces trying to get voters to move away from PML-N, they are not just going to simply rig the vote). Secondly, the power and prestige of the Supreme Court has been greatly enhanced. Though their use of suo moto is excessive in my view, I would rather have a powerful Supreme Court than a weak one. The greatest danger to democracy in the current global climate is democratic illiberal authoritarianism in which a popular demagogue dismantles all of the safeguards that ensure a liberal state. This can only happen if the Supreme Courts are neutered. We see this not just in Turkey and Venezuela, but it is also happening in Hungary and Poland.
There is an old joke after the fall of communism that the Eastern Europeans had finally gotten rid of that alien and oppressive ideology and could now return to their true political nature…fascism. When Pakistan appeared to be heading into democratic populist authoritarianism in the late 90’s, a key episode in that descent was when Nawaz Sharif literally sent a bunch of goons to surround and physically assault the Supreme Court and the Chief Justice himself while the army stood by and did nothing. It is now clear to all, that any such attempt would prompt the army to protect the physical security of the SC. That is huge progress.
The issue of Nawaz Sharif and his ability to contest this election is a complex one. When the Panama Papers became public, it was revealed that thousands of people around the world were using shell companies to launder money and hold assets for their personal financial gain while hiding their identities. Among these people were Nawaz Sharif’s children, who were found to be the legal owners of expensive London real estate. This revelation triggered several court cases against Nawaz Sharif for hiding assets.
The NAB is empowered to investigate politicians, etc., whose assets are in excess of their known sources of funds, to find out if there was some corruption or other illegal basis for acquiring those assets. In the course of those investigations, it came out that Nawaz Sharif was getting a small monthly payment from one of his son’s companies in the Gulf. It wasn’t clear if any actual cash was transferred to Nawaz Sharif, but he had not disclosed this on previous forms that required him to disclose sources of income, and this technical failure was the main legal basis by which the Supreme Court imposed a lifetime political ban on him. But the investigations have not shown that he had direct legal ownership of the London properties.
Despite losing the Prime Minister’s office, Nawaz Sharif has never provided any real legal answer to the main charges against him. First, how did his children acquire the funds that allowed them to purchase multimillion dollar estates in London as shown in the money laundering documents made public in the Panama case? The nation deserves to get a real explanation of that, and it is highly likely the truth involves corrupt funds, for if the money was clean he would have shown that readily. Second, the money laundering laws in Britain allow a foreign country to inquire about the financial transactions not of its citizens, but only of those claiming residency in that country. The US could not ask Britain for records pertaining to an American, despite US citizenship, if that person actually lived in Canada and provided that as his domicile to the UK authorities. Nawaz Sharif, preposterously, is claiming he is not domiciled in Pakistan, so the Pakistani authorities cannot get any information on his financial transactions in Britain. Trump won’t release his tax returns, but if he actually claimed he didn’t really live in the US, I think even his hardest core supporters would have trouble with that one. In any country that has a minimum standard of public ethics, a man like Nawaz Sharif would not be heading a major political party, he would be in jail for tax evasion and other financial crimes.
So Sharif is legitimately flawed and damaged goods. Is he the best we can do? Are we really supposed to tolerate any politician, no matter how crooked and immoral, as long as they get votes? Trump says his supporters would still back him if he shot somebody in Time Square. Probably true, but the State of New York would still charge him with murder. Why should Sharif be held to such a low standard? Is that the price of creating democracy? I find that logic twisted like a pretzel.
The one argument that Sharif defenders seem to rely on is that Sharif’s prosecution is selective, and being done for political purposes and not an impartial exercise of lawful judicial power. That may be true. It may also be the case that Sharif just happened to be the very first politician to be caught in the new emerging standard that Pakistan is developing as a nation. For decades we have tolerated horribly corrupt politicians, and maybe Sharif is the Harvey Weinstein of Pakistani politics, not the first to steal with both hands, but his timing is now terrible, and what once was acceptable is no longer. When Clinton carried on with a 19-year old White House intern, Democrats dismissed it as “just consensual sex”, ignoring the obvious power imbalance between the President and a teenager. A similar act today by a Democratic President would result in his resignation. Times are changing, and perhaps Sharif is the harbinger of change in Pakistan.
Some Sharif supporters hold the view that since Nawaz Sharif does not legally own the London properties he has no need to show the funds that purchased those properties are not tainted. But is it not conceivable that he is using corrupt practices to benefit his immediate family and so isn’t that a legitimate thing to investigate? Corruption can often benefit all sorts of family and friends of the person with the power. It is certainly true that the narrow item on which Sharif was banned was nonsense, and at most deserved a slap on the wrist, and if that is the extent of his wrongdoing then his defenders are right that it is basically a judicial coup going on. However, the Prime Minister should be held to a standard of genuinely being non-corrupt, and not simply able to avoid a conviction in a criminal court. As such he has an affirmative duty to provide all the records, to not use the issue of domicile to block the investigation, and to show to the court that his children did not receive a corrupt benefit from his status as PM. Like Caesar’s wife, the PM and his family should be above suspicion.
From a governance standpoint, PML-N did much better than PPP did, and it deserves reelection as a party, but not Nawaz Sharif as an individual. PTI is an unknown quantity, but even if Imran Khan were to win, it still would not be that much of a win for the military, Khan will not simply be their chaiwalla. The office will instantly empower him. My guess is that Imran cannot win outright, the PML-N is too strong in Punjab, but perhaps he can force a coalition. That may actually be a good thing, as the partners would then be able to act as a check on each other, and would also result in them uniting in favor of civilian supremacy, as they both would see that as in their interest in the long run. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
