May 25, 2018
Trump Quits Iran Deal
President Trump, in what can best be described as a foreign policy temper tantrum, quit the Iran nuclear deal that Obama had carefully put together in 2015. This deal, known as the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), was an international agreement between Iran on the one hand and Russia, China, Germany, France, UK, and the US on the other. It severely constrained Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, reduced the number of centrifuges Iran could use, and put Iran’s nuclear program under intensive monitoring. Some elements of the plan were time-limited to 10 years, but others were not.
Trump has been greatly frustrated by this deal. Under the its terms, the US reviews whether Iran is complying with the terms every 90 days, and the President is required to certify to Congress every 90 days that that is the case in order to keep the deal in place. For his first year in office, Trump was willing to do so with great reluctance, and it was only under the pressure of his more sane advisors that he declared Iran in compliance. In fact, Iran has been in full compliance and there are no credible allegations that Iran is violating the deal.
Iran benefited in two major ways from the deal. First, Iran got the release of about 30 billion dollars of Iranian funds that had been frozen in foreign banks, in some cases going back to 1979 and the Iran hostage crisis. These monies could replenish the Iranian treasury. Secondly, they got the international sanctions lifted from Iran. Obama had skillfully put in place an international sanction regime starting in 2010 that included Russia and China, which made it much more effective, and was strangling the Iranian economy. With this pressure, Iran had incentive to compromise and give up a pathway to building its own nuclear weapons.
The removal of the sanctions has allowed Iran’s oil exports to climb from 1.5 million barrels per day to currently 2.7 million bpd. In addition, it has allowed Europe, Russia, and China to begin trading with Iran. Iran has purchased new Airbus aircraft to begin modernizing a very old fleet of passenger aircraft.
What has Trump and the far-right in the US upset about the Iran nuclear deal are two different things. The far-right hates Iran and really wants to overthrow the government there. Among the neo-cons there is still some wistful longing for using military force and regime change, though just about everyone else in America would see that as a folly after the Iraq experience. These conservatives do acknowledge that the Iranians have complied with the deal. Their objection is that Iran is doing other things they don’t like, and that these behaviors are not constrained by the deal. In particular, Iran continues to do weapons research to develop long-range missiles.
Iran also supports Assad in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen’s civil war, and tries to influence Iraqi politics. There is also Iran’s support of Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Obama was not trying to make Iran comply with every possible American wish, he was trying to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons, and that goal was so important that a compromise was essential. In addition, the international sanction regime was put in place to get Iran to negotiate on the nuclear issue, and not on anything else. Obama could not use Russia and China to force Iran to stop supporting Assad for example.
Trump on the other hand did not engage in even this level of thought. For him, everything is very simple. If Obama was for it, he has to try to destroy it. It was his same approach to Obamacare. He had no idea what he is for or how will get a better result, he just wanted to break anything Obama had done.
The vast majority of foreign policy experts think Trump’s actions are terribly wrong and increase the risk of Iran going nuclear. That is an open question. By exiting the deal, the US can reimpose its own sanctions on Iran. But the frozen money has already been brought back to Iran, so that cannot be undone. In addition, there is no chance that the Europeans, Russia, or China will join any new sanctions. In fact, they want to take advantage of any business opportunities they can get at this point. The US sanctions will hurt some, but nowhere near what the situation was like for Iran in 2015.
The fact that Trump can so easily quit an international agreement makes it hard for the next nation to trust the US will hold up its end of a bargain. Why would President Kim of North Korea sign a deal with Trump to give up nuclear weapons knowing that the US cannot be trusted to keep its word?
There is a reasonable chance that the remaining parties will continue with the deal and Iran will stay within the terms of the JCPOA. That is for Iran to decide. If it pulled out and restarted its nuclear weapons program, that would put Trump in a real bind. He would have to watch Iran develop a bomb and do nothing, or go to war. But Iran may feel that Trump’s act will not be the last word, and if they wait till 2021, a new US President may recommit to the JCPOA if it is still operating then.
Despite the lifting of economic sanctions in 2016, Iran’s economy remains troubled. Even with oil exports at a record high, the economy has not boomed, and unemployment and sluggish growth are still a big issue. Demonstrations are occurring across the country. In the long run, the Iranian system needs major reforms, but the clerical structure is not capable of doing that because it would mean giving up power. The Iranians may not have the appetite to challenge the US by going for the bomb.
