November 24 , 2018
A Blue Wave
On November 6 the Trump era started its retreat. In the midterm elections, voters came out in the highest turnout since 1966 and provided a strong rebuke to the direction the GOP and Trump have taken America in the last two years. Most importantly, voters gave Democrats control of the House of Representatives, which means that the GOP can no longer pass any legislation they wish.
On election night the initial returns looked shaky for Democrats, and there was some instant analysis that the so-called “Blue Wave” had not materialized. Trump himself went so far as to claim victory. Partly this was because in the early returns it looked as if Democrats were only going to pick up 25-30 seats in the House. In addition, Democrats had a number of Senate seats in conservative states that were going down to defeat, expanding the GOP Senate advantage from 51-49 all the way up to 55-45, with a Democratic net loss of 4 seats. Finally, several high profile Democratic challengers were losing by small margins, particularly Gillum in the governor’s race in Florida, Abrams in the Georgia governer’s race, and Beto O’Rourke running against the hated Ted Cruz for the Texas Senate seat.
But as the late ballots were counted over the next few days the wave clearly showed up. Democrats look to have gained over 35 and perhaps more House seats, while actually winning the tight Senate races in Montana and Arizona, and Florida Senate and governor’s races heading to a recount with an uncertain outcome. There is even a chance that the Georgia governor’s race may go to a runoff election. In the end, Democrats won 23 out of 33 Senate races, with one race still undetermined in Florida, which means they will have at least 47 and perhaps 48 Senators at the end of the day. This will leave them in a favorable position for 2020, where they have several opportunities to win enough seats to take control of the Senate, giving them the ability to pass legislation along with the House.
What happened to the Trump coalition and how did the Democrats build this blue wave? Simply put it was minorities plus college educated Whites, particularly women. Democrats won 60% of women voters. By race 44% of Whites, 90% of Blacks, 70% Hispanics, and 77% Asians voted Democratic. Gender and education made a huge difference in the White vote. College educated women voted Democratic 59%, while non-college educated men only voted 32% for Democrats. College educated men basically split down the middle, with 47% Dems and 51% GOP.
Another twist was age, with younger voters much more Democratic. In the 18-29 age group the split was 67% Dems and 32% GOP, and among 30-44 year olds it was 58% Dems and 39% GOP. Republicans took about 50% of voters over age 45.
These demographics bode very ill for the GOP. They are relying on a vote base made up of mostly non-college educated older Whites, and mostly male. This is an ever-shrinking slice of the electorate, and is backing the GOP into a corner. The more they turn into the party of angry older White guys, the more they turn off the rest of America. Trump lucked into the White House in 2016 while only winning 46% of the vote due to a quirk of the Electoral College system, but the GOP will not be able to reproduce that miracle. Trump and the GOP are headed for a trainwreck in 2020.
The immediate effect of the Democratic win is twofold. First it stops Trump from passing any more crazy legislation like another round of tax cuts for the wealthy, or his oft-stated desire to repeal Obamacare. Second, it gives the Democrats the power of Congress to conduct real oversight and investigation of wrongdoing by the President. This power has always been there for the GOP to use, but while they controlled Congress they chose to do absolutely nothing and let Trump get away with all his corruption and incompetence. Now with an adversarial Congress, Trump is going to really feel the heat of multiple congressional investigations, starting with a public disclosure of his tax returns. Who knows what may turn up in all that.
One key figure to keep an eye on was a candidate who actually lost his race. This was Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who ran a spirited grassroots campaign in Texas of all places to win a Senate seat. Texas is a graveyard for Democrats who normally have no chance in statewide elections. But O’Rourke lost by only 2 points. His youthful energy and charisma reminded me a lot of Barack Obama in 2007. His ability to fundraise was amazing, pulling in over 30 million dollars without taking any PAC money, just from individual donors. While speculating about 2020 is premature to say the least, and there are certainly many Democrats that would love to run for President, I would keep a close watch on Beto O’Rourke. If he runs, his political talents are obvious and could take him far.
