December 04 , 2020
Biden’s Prospects
Joseph Biden, President-Elect of the United States, made history by defeating Trump last month. As almost all the votes have finally been counted, the scale of his victory is coming into focus. He garnered over 81 million votes, 15 million more than Hilary Clinton won in 2016. Trump improved his 2016 performance by 11 million votes, and has a total of around 74 million, meaning Biden won over 51% of the vote and had a winning margin of over 4% (2% of the vote went to third party candidates). This is the biggest popular vote share won by a challenger against an incumbent President since 1932. Overall voter turnout hit an all-time high, making this a convincing demonstration of how vibrant democracy is in the US despite Trump’s four-year assault on all of our norms and standards.
Biden will take over a country in crisis. The pandemic is surging, with almost 100,000 people in hospital, far higher than the 60,000 patients associated with the initial Spring peak. Meanwhile, the country is running a huge budget deficit, the Congress is refusing to authorize more relief money though millions will lose benefits on January 1, and the sitting President is refusing to concede, instead claiming the election was stolen with no proof whatsoever. Biden must also contend with a divided Congress. While Democrats retained the House, they only picked up 1 net seat in the Senate and remain two short of Senate control. Republicans could make life for Biden very hard and thwart much of his agenda. There is a small hope that the Democrats can win both Senate seats in Georgia, which are heading for a January 5th runoff, but Georgia is a conservative state usually, and to win those runoffs looks difficult at best, even though Biden narrowly won the state on November 3.
So what are Biden’s prospects for being a successful President? As long as his health holds, they are actually quite excellent. With several successful vaccines on the way, life in the US will go back to normal within the next 4-6 months. Biden will benefit from a massive surge in consumer spending to meet pent-up demand from the lockdowns and restrictions of 2020. Many of those who are unemployed will quickly be able to find work. This will make 2021 and 2022 strong years for economic and job growth.
With two good years, Biden will be able to go into the 2022 midterms in a very strong position. Normally the party holding the White House does poorly in the midterms, as its supporters get complacent while its opponents are energized to vote. This happened in 2018, 2010, 2006, and 1994. But with the country doing so well, the Democrats will be able to limit their losses in the House, and may have a shot at picking up 2 or 3 seats in the Senate, giving them full control of the Congress. This is not likely, but it is certainly possible.
If Biden is able to get unified control of Congress, he will be able to pass a long list of liberal policy goals. But even without, the President has immense power and Biden will use it aggressively. Immediately he will reverse the malignant policies of the Trump years, like the Muslim ban or the pullout from the Paris Climate Accords. But he will also be able to advance much of the liberal agenda through his control of the government agencies (such as enforcing Obama’s gas mileage goals of 56 mpg by 2025 for the auto industry, a goal that Trump tried to overturn). Biden will also make massive changes in US foreign policy and return us to being the head of an alliance of democracies, and end the ridiculous support for Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong-Il.
Biden will oversee years of peace and prosperity with strong job growth. He will go into the 2024 election in an overwhelmingly strong position. Biden did well in the recent election, but there are several states he could have won if his margin was a few points bigger. This includes Florida, North Carolina, and the biggest prize of Texas. Demographic change has been running in the Democrats favor for 3 decades. They have the strong support of African-Americans, Latinos, Asians, and college educated Whites, particularly White women. The Republican base is a steadily shrinking pool of voters. Trump’s machine did a great job of turning out that remaining vote base, bringing several million new voters to the polls to support him, but they are Trump voters, not Republicans. Without Trump on the ballot, they will go back to not voting. Biden will easily win reelection in 2024, with a significantly larger margin than this time, and that large victory will have coattails that give the Democrats winning margins in the House and Senate. Even if Biden has to put up with a Republican Senate in his first term, he will have the opportunity for transformative change in his second. If his health holds up.
