November 18 , 2022
The Meaning of the Midterms
Joe Biden just had the best midterm election performance of a Democratic President in 60 years. Contrary to widespread Republican expectations of a “Red Wave”, Democrats retained control of the Senate, with a runoff election in Georgia that will probably leave with them with a net gain of one seat, and minimal losses in the House. The House was so close to begin with that losing 7 or 8 seats will however result in a narrow Republican majority. What did this midterm tell us about the state of the nation?
First, it told us that the Trump led MAGA movement is a dead end for Republicans. Trump’s handpicked Senate and governor candidates around the nation were beaten repeatedly. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic candidate suffered a significant stroke earlier this year and still won his race, flipping the Pennsylvania Senate seat. A host of Trumpy election-deniers running for Secretary of State races across the country all went down to defeat.
Second, we learned that money didn’t matter that much. Once each candidate has enough money to get name recognition and run a voter mobilization campaign, all those extra social media and TV ads don’t accomplish much of anything. Over 90% of voters are locked in to voting either Republican or Democrat, and campaign spending won’t change their minds. All those dollars are chasing a small number of voters who aren’t that politically minded in the first place.
Third, we learned that voters cared more about abortion and democracy than about inflation and crime. Republicans thought that high gas prices and 8% inflation in general would lead to widespread voter rejection of Democrats, but it didn’t happen. Instead, the Supreme Court decision to overturn the abortion rights guarantee in the Roe decision energized the Democratic base. In particular, it energized young voters, with Democrats winning 75% of voters under 30. This bodes very badly for the long-term prospects of the Republican party.
Fourth, Joe Biden has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win reelection in 2024. By then this wave of inflation will be over, Ukraine will have defeated Russia, and the economy will be in good shape. Biden will have an impressive record to run on, and as long as his health holds up, he should beat any Republican challenger.
Fifth, Republican politicians and media are ready to move on from Trump. They just want him to go away. The Wall Street Journal ran a number of anti-Trump editorials, and even Fox News is giving room to criticize Trump. The criticism is not that Trump is a racist, or knows nothing about policy, or is cozy with dictators, or appointed extreme conservative judges to the courts, or mishandled COVID and caused unnecessary deaths, even though all those things are true. The criticism is that he is bad for the Republican brand. While his supporters love him, the average moderate voter is repulsed by him. And his presence in the political scene riles up the Democratic base. Simply put, conservatives think he cost them the election to a large extent.
Sixth, even though the Republicans will take over the House of Representatives, this is a Pyrrhic victory. Kevin McCarthy is hoping desperately to be the next Speaker of the House, a job he has coveted for seven years. But there is a small group of extreme right wingers in the GOP House Caucus that will not support McCarthy, unless he gives them massive concessions for their crazy schemes. These people want to shut down the government, default on the debt ceiling, impeach President Biden (for precisely what is unclear), investigate Biden’s son Hunter’s business dealings, and cut off support to Ukraine. But on the other side, there are about 5-10 new Republican Representatives that come from very moderate districts, and they know they will lose their seats in 2024 if they engage in all this lunacy. They will refuse to support McCarthy if he tries to indulge the crazies. The result is going to be an internal Republican war that might leave McCarthy shut out of his ambition. It’s even conceivable that moderate Republicans rely on Democratic support to install a moderate Republican as Speaker, an unprecedented turn of events.
The person who loomed over these midterms far more than Biden was Trump. What does he do now? He is likely going to announce a run for President in 2024, and the first primary votes for that race is only 15 months away. Trump wants to clear the field and scare off any potential rivals. Ron DeSantis, who won his reelection to governor in Florida by 20 points, is positioning himself to run for President. But DeSantis is young and can wait. Will he take on Trump directly, or step aside and wait till 2028? Trump destroyed a whole field of elite Republican politicians in 2016, including Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie. DeSantis is actually not very charismatic as a politician. Could he beat Trump if no other Republican entered the race? Possibly, but Trump is such a gifted demagogue that he would likely win.
For the Republican party, it is a bad situation either way. Trump as the nominee would be a disaster. He would lose to Biden by 7-10 points and take the party down with him. He is almost certainly going to be charged by Department of Justice with serious felonies related to his taking of top secret intelligence documents to his home and hiding them there for over a year after leaving office, and he will also probably be charged with a felony in Georgia for his attempt to subvert its election result. Running for President while being a criminal defendant is not going to be good for the Republican Party.
But if DeSantis beats Trump that is also going to be a problem. Trump is so narcissistic and petty he will not abide being defeated by DeSantis. Not only will he do nothing to help him win against Biden, he would encourage his rabid supporters to either not vote, or he will run as a third party candidate and split the Republican vote, handing the election to Biden.
Trump won a lucky victory in 2016 due to the vagaries of the Electoral College, even though Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes. But since then, the Republicans have done poorly in every election, from the Blue Wave of 2018 to the Biden win in 2020, to this midterm. The Republicans need to truly look at the failing contraption they have put together and rebuild themselves as a sane moderately conservative party that is in touch with modern life. Until they do, they will continue to lose elections, even if Trump is long gone.
