By Dr. Nayyer Ali

December 17, 2004

Elections in Iraq


Iraq is heading for elections in less than 60 days. The outcome will shape the possibilities of the future for the Middle East in many ways. Currently, it looks like the Shia will win a large majority, and will be in a position to take real power in Iraq for the first time in history. This possibility, given the unrest in the Sunni regions raises the strong likelihood that Iraq is not viable as a single state.

The elections themselves suffer from a fatal flaw. The system is based on national “lists” rather than geographic constituencies. What this means is that each voter picks from a choice of “lists” put forward by various political parties. The actual number of delegates to the Constitutional convention awarded to each party will be based on their share of the national vote.

This means that voter turnout is extremely important in deciding who wins, and that bloc voting can mangle the results. The Shia have worked hard to put together a unified Shia list, pulling together Shia of all political persuasions into a single list. The Shia will then turn out and vote as a bloc for that list. The Sunnis on the other hand are divided, and more importantly, are not going to vote at all. Some have already announced their intention to boycott the election, while others will not vote due to violence and unrest. So even though the Sunnis make up 20% of Iraq, they may end up with even less than 10% of the delegates. The Kurds will also vote as a bloc for the two Kurdish parties, and so will be reasonably represented.

The problem with this is that the resulting Constitution will not be seen as legitimate and acceptable by the Sunnis, and the insurgency will therefore not be affected by the results of the election. The election is not the way forward, but will only confirm to the Sunnis that the process is heavily tilted in favor of the Shia and Kurds. The alternative that the US should have pushed for was to have defined constituencies based on population, like the congressional districts in the US. So even if voter turnout in the Sunni region was depressed compared to the Shias, the Sunnis would still have elected 20% of the delegates as 20% of the country is geographically Sunni.
I am becoming more and more concerned that Iraq cannot be held together without American force, and eventually the US will tire of the casualties. This last week the US suffered its 1000th combat death.

There is another option. It is to divide Iraq into three nations. Let the Kurds have independence in the north, and grant the same to the Shias in the south. The Sunnis can then have their own country to do as they please. There are some obvious questions, like what to do about Mosul, Baghdad, and the oil. Mosul is a city that would be claimed by both Sunni Arabs and Kurds, while Baghdad would be claimed by both Sunni and Shia.

Mosul was majority Kurdish till the early 1990’s when Saddam began a brutal policy of “Arabizing” Kurdish regions by forcibly moving in Arabs and displacing Kurds. As such, the Kurds have a strong moral claim that Mosul rightfully should be part of their state. Baghdad has large Sunni and Shia populations. The city ideally could be shared by the two new states, but given the reality of violence that would not likely work. The obvious geographical choice would be to separate Baghdad into East and West based on the Tigris River, giving the East side to the Sunni state and the West to the Shia.

Iraq’s mammoth oil reserves are conveniently split into two sets of deposits in the Kurdish north and Shia south. The new Kurdish and Shia states would keep those fields. To satisfy the Sunni claim to their fair share of Iraq’s oil wealth, both the Kurdish and Shia states would be required to pay 20% of their oil profits to the Sunni state for perhaps two or three decades.
Bush has hitched his exit strategy to early elections that will yield a legitimate and strong central Iraqi government. That strategy has serious flaws and I am concerned is going to fail. Breaking up Iraq may be a better approach.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

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