By Dr. Nayyer Ali

February 11, 2005

Iraq’s Elections By

The elections in Iraq held on January 30 were a success for both the Iraqis and the Bush administration. But the key will be how well both build on this success, as its achievement could be squandered easily over the next few months. Twenty months after the toppling of Saddam in the name of democracy, Iraq finally got its first free election. The election was not the most ideal. The use of a single constituency for the entire country meant that a low turnout among one community would mean very little electoral success. This has affected the Sunnis, who were much less enthusiastic about this vote than the Shia and Kurds.

The violence and chaos also meant that there was no proper campaign, either in person, or in the form of political rallies, or in the electronic and press media. There was no real clash of ideas, and the main factor people were voting on was ethnic or sectarian identity. The main Shia slate has already claimed victory, although no official vote count has been released. Iraqis are just learning the ropes of how to conduct elections, and the vote counting was supposed to take up to ten days to get a result. Assuming the Shia slate is correct, they will be in a position to pick the new Prime Minister and set the agenda for writing the constitution. Writing the constitution is the most important task of the new 275-seat National Assembly.

They will have to produce a document that will be credible with all Iraqis and represents a break with Iraq’s dysfunctional past. For the Shia, they must resist the temptation to use their electoral strength to create a “tyranny of the majority”, a regime that is both democratic and oppressive to its minorities. After suffering under Saddam disproportionately for the last twenty years, the Shia should not treat their fellow Iraqis with retribution. The correct course is to create an Iraq that treats all of its citizens with equality and justice. For the Kurds, they have significant power in the new setup, but they are still keeping one eye on the exit. If the new Iraq is not sufficiently protective of their interests, they are still keeping the option of trying to have an independent state.

The US will not be happy about that, as it promised such an outcome would not happen to Turkey, and this could lead to a confrontation if the Kurds push the issue. The Transitional Law that is operating right now states that the new constitution will have to be approved in a referendum in October 2005. If any three Iraqi provinces vote against the constitution, it will have failed. This is a safety valve that allows the three Kurdish provinces an effective veto over the new constitution. It also happens to allow the three Sunni provinces the same thing. Given this veto power the National Assembly will have to create a document that is acceptable to the Sunnis and Kurds. The Shia are already stating some positive things.

They have declared that they do not want an Iranian-style theocracy, and will not put Shia clergy into political office. They also intend to allow Sunnis to participate in the deliberations, even if the Sunnis don’t win many seats. For Bush, this election may lead to a reasonable exit strategy. If the new government has enough credibility to create public order, then the US presence could wind down. In the meantime, Bush is clearly elated by the success of the election.

Whether the invasion of Iraq was right or wrong morally, or right or wrong from the standpoint of US interests, is debatable, and I would say it was wrong on both counts. But with this election, we must conclude that the invasion of Iraq may turn out to have been in the interest of the vast majority of the people of Iraq itself. Comments can reach me at nali@socal.rr.com.


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