By Dr. Nayyer Ali

May 27, 2005

Aziz, the PML, and 2007

Musharraf’s patched together political setup is heading for a critical moment. Elections are due no later than October 2007, and his position as President is contingent on those elections yielding a National Assembly that will reelect him to another five years. Already the United States has declared that they want the 2007 polls to meet international standards of a free election, standards that the 2002 vote fell short of.
But to win a parliamentary election, Musharraf needs a political party that will be able to garner votes, and someone to head that party that can win the confidence of the Pakistani voters. The current PML-Q, which is Musharraf’s cobbled together party of various lifelong opportunistic politicians, is in disarray. Recent sniping between former Prime Minister Jamali and party President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain along with attacks on Hussain by other figures in the PML have highlighted this and attracted the usual media figures to pronounce that the end is near again. The absence of Shaukat Aziz, the Prime Minister, from this recent spat seems to suggest that he has no real control of the party of that he would be leading into the next election.
All of these observations are essentially true. Musharraf and Aziz have a major political problem that needs to be dealt with, namely, that Aziz must become a politician and not just a Prime Minister in his own right. There are still two years to the elections, which is a lifetime in politics, so much can change between now and then. Who was Bill Clinton in 1990 or Bush the younger in 1998? Vladimir Putin was a nobody in Russian politics two years before he became President. Aziz has very large advantages, namely the fact that he has been a national figure since 1999, he is the Prime Minister, and his policies have been extremely successful.
For Aziz to win a free election in 2007, Musharraf needs to make a strategic choice to enable his civilian Prime Minister to develop real political standing. Such a choice would have real consequences for the civil-military relationship in Pakistan. Whether Musharraf will accept this as the best way to solidify the achievements of his government is unclear.
Can Aziz win in 2007? Pakistan in 2007 will be a far different place than Pakistan in the 1990’s was. The rise of mass communication, satellite TV, increasing literacy, and cell phone penetration (half of Pakistani households should have cell phones by then) will change the way politics has been practiced. An election strategy that focuses on television and mass media rather than mass rallies and feudal favors can win the cities. Could we not see a debate on Geo TV between Aziz, Benazir, Nawaz, and Fazlur Rehman? Aziz would make mincemeat of them.
Aziz could also build support from the business community, the industrial workforce, the banking sector, the stock brokers, the small farmers, and the Mohajir, Shia, and minorities. Aziz could easily run on a slogan of “Are you better off than five years ago?” and every Pakistani with a cell phone in her hand, or a new motorbike, or TV set, would say “yes”. An Aziz ticket could sweep the large cities, the free peasantry in Punjab, and the minority votes.
There is more than sufficient time to pursue such a strategy, but it is not unlimited. If Musharraf wants to continue basing his government on the uniform and assorted political hacks, while letting Aziz the technocrat manage Pakistan’s growing economy, that might be a short-term solution. But in the long run, he is better off in transferring real authority to the National Assembly, and in Aziz he has a man who can ensure the continuation of the progress that has been made.
There still remains the fundamental issue of the power of the Presidency. For Pakistan to be a real democracy, the President must be reduced to a ceremonial role only, or if not the office should then be directly elected by the people. This constitutional challenge cannot be ignored by supporters of democracy.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

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