September
08 , 2006
Balochistan:
Shape of Things to Come
For a student
of Pakistan affairs, it is but natural to wonder
about the fallout of the death of the veteran Balochi
leader and chief of Bugti tribe, Nawab Akbar Bugti,
in a military operation on August 26, 2006.
Four days after the event, till the time of writing
this piece, there is no consensus on the way he
was killed. Digging continued day and night to extricate
his body from the rubble of the cave he was hiding
in and an official spokesman has just informed that
workers have reached the body and it would be dug
out of the rubble within hours. Subsequently, the
body was dug out and quietly buried in the ancestral
graveyard of the Bugtis.
The focus of this article is, however, on the repercussions
of his death.
Would the current outrage over the “assassination”
of the Balochi tribal chief simmer down as expected
by the top men in uniform and their civilian supporters,
or would it snowball into a national agitation,
causing the fall of the government, as desired by
the combined opposition parties? Would Akbar Bugti
go down in history as a Balochi hero who laid down
his life for the betterment of his people, or would
he be remembered as a greedy demagogue and a renegade
whose prime interest was to feather his own nest,
and hang on to his hereditary leadership of Bugti
tribe? Given the strategic location of Balochistan,
has it become the site of the 21st century’s
“Great Game” with China and the US leading
their teams and Russia, Iran and India having stakes
in it?
Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan,
commanding some 43% of the country’s territory
but a mere 6% of its population, with the richest
natural resources, but with the lowest per capita
income. It produces bulk of the natural gas and
has mines with large deposits of copper, gold and
silver.
Administratively, Balochistan is a nightmare. The
British demarcated eighty per cent of the Province
as tribal territory to be administered by Sardars.
Only the remaining 20 per cent came under civilian
administration. The Sardars have adroitly dealt
with regime after regime at the federal capital
to maintain this system.
The anachronistic system has been challenged by
the wind of change that has started blowing through
the area with the construction of the Gwadar Port,
and new roads and military garrisons to ensure the
security of national assets. That is where lies
the crux of the clash. The federal authorities say
that the natural resources belong to the entire
nation, while the tribal Sardars maintain that they
belong solely to the Balochis.
To enforce their claim, three militant groups were
set up: the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch
National Army, and the People’s Liberation
Army. They are said to have up to 150 training camps
and are alleged to have been responsible for 650
bomb blasts in just one year. The BLA has been banned
both in Pakistan and in the UK on grounds of being
a subversive, terrorist set-up.
As for the first query, whether the current agitation
gathers momentum, as planned by the combined opposition
parties and cause the fall of the government, it
is too early to see clearly the shape of things
to come. The agitation is likely to remain confined
to Balochistan as it is over the murder of a Balochi
leader with a narrow nationalist agenda. If it mushrooms
all over the country, it might take the form of
a clash between the man in uniform and the one in
civilian clothes. In such an event, the army and
its subservient political party will have an uphill
task in convincing the people of the justification
for hanging on to power.
The opposition parties had been looking for a convincing
cause to launch a countrywide agitation against
the government. The decision of the Supreme Court
on the privatization of the Steel Mills provided
a plausible issue. The no-confidence motion against
the Prime Minister was based on it. However, the
killing of Akbar Bugti overtook that.
Conspicuous by its absence is any statement by Benazir,
the most vocal opposition leader. While in government,
she was often at loggerheads with Sardar Bugti.
Then, she must have noticed the indifference of
the US authorities towards the Balochistan incident.
She is a good Washington watcher who believes that
the road to Islamabad lies through Washington.
The biggest assets of the government are the negative
records of both Nawaz and Benazir, apart from the
fact that no new leader, no new face, with a stirring
message has emerged on the horizon.
The achievements, particularly in the economic field,
of the present government haven’t yet filtered
down to the common people to sway their opinion.
Upper echelon of the society, the men in uniform
in particular, have mainly benefited from them.
Therefore, government efforts at this stage to play
up the current or future development projects might
boomerang like the Decade of Reforms of President
Ayub, White Revolution of the Shah of Iran, or more
recently the India Shining slogan of Vajpai government.
Even if there is a countrywide agitation, it might
at best cause the change of face in uniform. The
General who might take over would promise elections
in ninety days – to be extended to years.
As for the second query regarding the role of Sardar
Bugti in the history of Pakistan, he is unlikely
to sit in the row of the nation’s benefactors.
Mr. Bhutto, who made remarkable contributions to
the country’s foreign relations, continues
to be a controversial figure owing to his deliberate
moves to suppress the nouveau riche, the industrial
and business community in particular, through nationalization
and buttressing at the same time the political clout
of the feudal lords. Akbar Bugti was an out-and-out
tribal leader. He was a violent figure who is said
to have killed his first man at age 12. To revenge
the assassination of his son, he is reported to
have killed a hundred persons.
He had served as the Governor and Chief Minister
of his province but without anything concrete to
show for the work he did for his people. Like a
true feudal potentate, he kept his people under
his heel.
That kind of grueling feudal structure ended centuries
back in the world. India absorbed all feudal enclaves,
some 600 princely states, into the country’s
mainstream soon after independence. One hopes the
elimination of Sardar Bugti would mark the beginning
of the end of feudalism in Pakistan.
Our last query is whether Balochistan has become
the site of the 21st century’s ‘Great
Game’. The strategic location of Balochistan
holds a special significance for China, Russia,
India and the US in the race to control the oil
and gas supply from Central Asia.
China has the biggest stake. It has already built
Gwadar port and is expanding it to handle cargo
ships up to 50,000 tons or more. The port has already
been connected to Karachi by a coastal highway.
Plans are underway to build a north highway connecting
Gwadar to Karakoram Highway (KKH) which is being
upgraded to carry heavy truck traffic. On the Chinese
side, the KKH is being connected to Russian-built
highway network that already connects all the five
Central Asian Republics. Once Gwadar port is connected
to Kashgar, Western China’s main city, the
distance between the two would be 1500 km as against
3,500 km between Kashgar and the Chinese ports on
its eastern coast.
Gwadar will thus be the main port to handle the
commercial traffic of Western China (Xingxiang/Sinkiang
– inhabited mainly by Turkic Muslims) that
is being built by China at a cost of $500 billion.
Balochistan over the next decade or so will thus
change into a thriving, throbbing area instead of
the backyard of the country ruled by antediluvian
tribal chiefs and warlords. Meanwhile, special efforts
and allocations will have to be made to impart requisite
education and skills to the youth of the region
so that they are enabled to carry out the responsibilities
awaiting them.
-arifhussaini@hotmail.com
