June 13 , 2014
Pitfalls of Intervention
When, in 1953, a clandestine Anglo-American coup ousted Iranian nationalist Prime Minister Dr Mosaddeq and implanted the Shah of Iran, it set in motion the law of unintended consequences. 25 years later, its blowback appeared in the form of the Iranian Revolution. The ramifications continue to spill over into the 21 st century.
Egypt demonstrates anew the pitfalls of hard-power intervention. Egypt’s elected president, Dr Mohamed Morsi, played into his foes’ hands through his misrule, which augmented divisions, and was not inclusive. But that didn’t justify the murderous coup that toppled him.
Now, through a sham election, former Army chief Abdel el-Sisi, in a “landslide victory”, has grabbed the presidency with a 92% majority. Only 25 million out of 54 million eligible voters participated in the May 2014 elections. The low turnout itself shreds the credibility of the poll.
The stated goal of eradicating the Muslim Brotherhood is sheer stupidity. The Brotherhood has dug deep roots in Egyptian society. The coup will succeed only in pushing it deeper underground, validating those who reject peaceful transition through the ballot box. With no stake in the system, the Brotherhood may turn out to be now an even more deadly foe. Lest it be forgotten, Al Qaeda was partially hatched in Egyptian jails.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s ruling circles, it is business as usual. Same autocratic mindset, same denial of merit and fair opportunity, same pampering of hate groups, same exclusive catering to family monopoly, and same pursuit of revenge and riches. But having said all that, is the so-called Opposition any better?
All of the above calls for forging a national consensus to set in place a cleansing and corrective mechanism to curb arbitrary abuse of power. A personalized push for a mere rotation of personnel hasn’t worked and won’t work. They have no idea of the carnage that may await around the corner.
A concomitant element that has wreaked havoc is the unleashing of “free” media. It gave huge platform to a semi-literate, easily suborned group to peddle half-baked ideas. The result: a bigger spiral of toxic divisions.
In politics, the choice is not always between good or bad. It can boil down to bad or worse.
A shortcut route of a putsch is seldom the answer. The same problems reemerge in different forms. The important thing is not to give too much control to too few individuals who are likely to share the same perspective.
The lesson of history is that the lessons of history are not absorbed.
Chile’s President, Michelle Bachelet, can testify what happened in Santiago on September 11, 1973, when the democratically elected government of Marxist leader Salvador Allende was ousted by General Augusto Pinochet. Hell broke loose. Michelle was jailed and tortured and her father tortured to death.
Those following the script for short-cut change are unlikely to be its beneficiaries.
Fear is not just the province of timid politicians. Fear also infects the Establishment. Like a coquettish courtesan, the Establishment is sometimes extremely nice to those who aren’t so nice to them, and not so nice to those who try to be nice to them.
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