By Dr. Nayyer Ali

October 07 , 2005

Pakistan and Israel

In the last month, Pakistan has taken two highly visible steps to engage Israel, with the possibility of diplomatic recognition floated by President Musharraf himself. What has brought Pakistan to this point, and why now?
In late 1947 and early 1948, when Britain was preparing to withdraw from Palestine, the early Pakistani government clearly made its pro-Palestinian sympathies known. Jinnah was clearly a supporter of the Palestinians, and was not in favor of the partition of Palestine and the creation of Israel. Since 1949, the Pakistani government has been consistently friendly to the Arab cause and has avoided recognition of Israel.
The main reason for Pakistan’s stand has been its loyalty as a Muslim country to fellow Muslims. The Palestinians, who are 90% Muslim, and the other Muslim neighbors of Israel, all pressed Pakistan to side with them in international diplomacy. That Pakistan did willingly. But Nehru and the Congress party in India were also pro-Arab and pro-Palestinian. As such, India too did not recognize Israel for several decades.
Despite the formal diplomatic rejection of Israel, there were ongoing relations between Pakistan and Israel in the last few decades. Primarily these occurred in the 1980’s, when Israel supplied arms to Pakistan for use by the Mujahideen in Afghanistan who were fighting the Soviets. These deals were obviously at the behest of the US, which wanted to put as much pressure as possible on the Soviets, but never to publicly claim direct US involvement.
When the Afghan war ended, Israel and Pakistan resumed their arms-length posture. But in the last fifteen years, events have pushed Pakistani strategic thinking to reassess relations with Israel. First was the start of the Oslo process. If Arafat could shake hands with the Israeli Prime Minister and hold direct talks, then why should Pakistan feel constrained not to? Must Pakistan be more Palestinian than the Palestinians themselves? Even the neighboring Arab states that have warred with Israel engaged in direct contact. Both Egypt and Jordan had full peace treaties, while Syria almost made a deal in 1999.
The second factor was the BJP turn to Israel. The Indian government recognized Israel in 1992, but when the BJP took power in 1997, the relationship took on a strategic and military dimension. Both Israel and India perceived a common enemy in Islam, and so it made sense for them to make common cause. Most ominously, Israel began to supply high-tech military equipment to India, including an AWACS system that substantially upgraded the capability of India’s air force. In modern war, technology trumps sheer numbers or zeal. Whichever side has access to better technology will easily win a conventional war. Pakistan began to see this Indo-Israeli alliance as a significant threat.
Last year, the notion of recognizing Israel was floated by the government. But it was essentially rejected in the press and among the population. The government backed down but did not change its mind. The key event this year was the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. With that significant step, Musharraf had an opening. He could now argue that Israel has shown its willingness to act positively, and it is in Pakistan’s interest to engage the Israelis. Only through engagement can Pakistan push the Israelis to complete the process of withdrawal.
Israel does not usually accede to threats, especially the empty kind that the Arabs have usually delivered, but it is susceptible to positive inducement. If the Israelis believe that they can benefit from certain acts, they will consider them. Linking full recognition of Israel by the leading Muslim nation, and the only one with nuclear weapons, to the creation of Palestine, is astute. Musharraf has created a seat at the table of the Middle East diplomacy for Pakistan. If he can advance Pakistan’s interests, and the Palestinians, then this approach is not a sell-out, but a wise shift in Pakistan’s longstanding position.



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