By Dr. Nayyer Ali

Iraq Falls Apart

March 17, 2006

We are now approaching the third anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq. In a few weeks the war will enter its fourth year. The death toll now exceeds 2000 US soldiers and probably 30,000 direct violent deaths among Iraqis. The tragedy though shows no sign of abating despite a series of political events that the Bush administration hoped would give them a viable exit strategy.
When Bush invaded Iraq his team had very high hopes for the end result. Not only would Saddam be sent packing, but Iraq would be reconstituted as a liberal, secular democracy. It would by now have an elected pro-American government that would allow permanent US military bases, and be the new centerpiece of US Middle East influence. The refurbished oil sector would be pumping so many barrels of crude that world oil prices would decline to levels below where they were before the war started. And the democratic example of Iraq would lead toward a democratic transformation of the broader Arab world, as dictators would yield to the new realities.
This entire change was to come at a very low price. There would be very few US casualties, and the reconstruction of Iraq would have been paid for in large part by Iraq’s own oil sales, and not by the US Treasury.
Needless to say, this entire vision now lies in ruin. American soldiers die at the rate of 50 per month or more, and the US has directly spent over 300 billion dollars on this war. Despite that, for all intents and purposes, the insurgents have defeated the US in Iraq. If we accept that wars are essentially political acts, the defeat of the US political aims means that the US has been defeated. Saddam certainly hasn’t won either; in fact, the real winners are the Kurds in this whole process, and to a lesser extent, religious Shias and Iran.
The essential problem that the US has not been able to solve is how to create a real Iraqi state. In the face of a relentless and ruthless insurgency based among Iraqi Sunni Arabs, the people of Iraq have divided sharply along ethnic lines. The voting in both the December 2004 election for the constitutional convention and the December 2005 vote for the new government went entirely along ethnic lines. Shias dominated by virtue of their 60% share of the population, with Kurds and Sunnis each polling about 20%.
Adding to the mix is the retention of powerful ethnic militias, particularly the Peshmerga of the Kurds, and the Badr Brigades and Mahdi Army among the Shia. They are far more potent than the poorly motivated and trained Iraqi army. No Iraqi army units are even allowed into the Kurdish areas.
The ongoing attacks on Shia shrines have brought Iraq to the verge of an open civil war. When the Shia perceive the US as protecting the Sunni minority from their perceived justified desire for vengeance, the Shia will also turn against the US.
Meanwhile, the war has seen its support evaporate in the US. Bush’s poll numbers are hitting record lows. Republicans are frightened of the election in November, and possible loss of their control of Congress. And the Republicans know they cannot go to the voters in 2008 with the army still in Iraq. Britain just announced they will pull all their forces out in less than two years. Bush needs to exit Iraq as quickly as he can.
But how can he get out without a full-scale civil war erupting? Even the Sunnis know the consequences will make Lebanon look like a picnic. And to leave Iraq in such a convulsed state would be utterly humiliating for Bush and leave an historical stain on the United States.
There is only one option left. It is the one I first mentioned in December of 2004. Iraq will have to be partitioned into three nations. Iraq cannot be held together voluntarily. Without massive force, either by Saddam or the US Army, Iraq has no realistic chance of becoming a stable and functional society. The Kurds will be happy to leave Iraq, as long as they take Kirkuk with them. And the Shia will also be happy with their own state in central and southern Iraq. Baghdad will have to be divided, most logically along the Tigris river, between the new Sunni and Shia nations. The sooner everyone accepts this inevitable outcome, the quicker it can be implemented. Until then, more innocent lives will be lost in the ongoing civil war. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

 

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