By Dr. Nayyer Ali

May 05 , 2006

Global Warming

I just returned from vacation in Hawaii where I read a very interesting book on global warming, written by Tim Flannery. It’s called “The Weather Makers.” Tim Flannery has written a great addition to the debate on perhaps the most difficult and important question of global public policy, namely, are humans responsible for climate change, and do we need to do something about it right now?
This is in fact a very complex scientific question, and Flannery is certainly in the camp that would answer yes. He has written a thorough and well-argued brief for his position. He is clearly familiar with the range of scientific evidence that has been developed, and he does an excellent job of making it understandable and accessible to the average intelligent layperson.
In brief, Flannery shows that our modern industries, based on fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, are generating so much carbon dioxide that they are raising the concentration of that gas in our atmosphere at a significant rate. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps the heat energy of sunshine and warms the Earth. By raising the concentration from 280 ppm to 380 ppm over the last century, Flannery argues that we are having a significant impact on the atmosphere and climate. Business as usual will push this number over 750 by the end of the century, and lead to so much warming that we will face significant environmental catastrophe.
Flannery is on his strongest ground when he describes the impact of warming on biodiversity. While the environment has weathered much climate change in the past (e.g. for much of Earth's history we had no polar icecaps, and even in the last million years we have had repeated ice ages come and go), the cold-adapted species would have nowhere to run in a warmer world. Tropical mountaintops and the polar regions have very vulnerable biodiversity that could not stand much warming.
Flannery is weak in a few areas. He overstates the vulnerability of human society to climate change. There is a reason why malaria does not occur in Hawaii or Singapore, and that is wealth and resources. Human society will grow much wealthier over the next century and this will provide ample resources to adapt to climate change. The global economy is growing at about 4% per year, and even at 3% per year, we will transform our current global economy of 35 trillion dollars into one over 600 trillion dollars by 2100. That will certainly make it affordable for all of humanity to survive climate change.
The biggest weakness of the book is that although Flannerty is intending to write the definitive argument in favor of immediate action, he does not address a number of serious objections to the scenario of doom that he posits. Although some global warming skeptics are shills for coal and oil producers, not all of them are. Richard Lindzen is a respected atmospheric scientist at MIT, and his arguments are not addressed, and another reputable scientist, Fred Singer, is dismissed, incorrectly, as a Moonie (not sure how that is relevant anyway). Lindzen has argued that the theoretical basis of global warming, the "global circulation models" that are used to model and predict the long-range climate outlook, are simply not good enough to answer the question at hand, and to rely on them to make this huge public policy decision is flawed.
Another major critic of immediate action is Bjorn Lomborg, a statistician in Denmark and author of the book "The Skeptical Environmentalist". Lomborg accepts the basic theory of global warming, but argued that the IPCC scenarios for global warming are flawed and exaggerated by three critical factors. They overestimate human population growth in the coming century, they use market exchange rates rather than purchasing power rates to estimate the size and predict the growth of Third World economies (these make for huge errors in India and China's predicted emissions), and they assume both massive increases in fossil fuel use along with persistent low prices, something we can see is unrealistic. Lomborg argues that if one uses correct assumptions, and takes into account the dampening effect of rising prices and falling costs of solar and wind power, we will never reach the doomsday scenarios.
Flannery should have addressed these major issues to strengthen his own case. Even still, his is a very important contribution to this issue, and should be read by those who are true believers and by skeptics with an open mind. The future may depend on it. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

PREVIOUSLY

Deflating Japan

Bush’s Axis of Evil

Speaking to Non-Muslims

If Arafat Were Jinnah

The Shape of Things to Come

South Asia Expert Calls for Negotiations on Kashmir

Kashmir After the Cold War

Kashmir Quagmire: How It Started

Kashmir: Where We’ve Been

Make Way for the Euro

Will there Be a Muslim Palestine?

Careful, Careful

Our Growing Community

Pakistan’s Golden Opportunity

Musharraf’s Reform Plans

Pakistan’s Afghan Dilemma

Humanity on the Move

Strategies of America, Pakistan and Benazir

Winners and Losers

America’s Strategy Defang the Fundamentalists

The Noose Tightens

Pakistan in America

Musharraf’s Moment

A Sad Day for America, A Sad Day for Islam

Repeal the Blasphemy Law

Bush’s Stem Cell Compromise

The Depressing Stock Market

An Evening on Human Development

“Benazir” Takes Over in Indonesia

Race Riots in Britain

Global Warming or Just Hot Air?

Milosevic on Trial

Russia’s Collapse

Economic Recovery in Pakistan?

President Khatami’s Re-election

Lifting Sanctions on Pakistan

Israel’s Moral Burden

A Break in the Logjam?

The Second American Century

Pakistan’s Constitution

Dr. Lodhi in Los Angeles

Literacy: The Road Forward

Why Yusuf Can't Read

Literacy: The Glass is Half Full

Blowing Up Buddha

A Truth and Reconciliation Commission for Pakistan

Did You See the Moon?

Cornrows, Ali Khan, and Culture

Will the Children Go To Harvard?

Muslim Political Progress

Information Technology Gets A Boost

Sand and Oil

On Lieberman

Pakistan Builds A Tank

Kashmir in the Nuclear Age

Full Speed Ahead on Privatization

A Muslim France?

Too Much Food

Watching the Election Why Are We Hollywood’s Villains?

A Tyrant Falls

Taliban Victorious

The Walking Whale of Pakistan
The Joy of Air Travel?

The Amazing American Economy
Arafat and Jerusalem

Names For The Children

Population: Too Many or Too Few?

It Does Matter

Aziz Goes For Growth

The Military Government's First Budget

L'Affaire Salam

End Sanctions on Iraq

Third World Democracy

Light Weapons Trade on the Rise

Iran Reforms

Back to the Future

The Saudis and OPEC Mature

How Can We Help Pakistan Develop?

Report Card on Musharraf

IMF Vs Pakistan

A Candid Discussion on Foreign Policy Issues

A Sad Tale of Missed Opportunities

Cold War In Kashmir

Whither Afghanistan?

National Security and Literacy

Pakistan Votes

The People Win

What is an Islamist?

Selling the Crown Jewels

Still Not Government

One Year After the Taliban

Benazir's Folly

Iraq and Oil

Saddam and Iraq - I

Saddam and Iraq - 2

Muslim Democracy

Zakat and Capitalism

Zakat and Capitalism - 2

The Economy Picks Up

The American Military: Power without Limit?

Good Foreign Policy is Good Anti-Terrorism Policy

The Arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammad

Bush Takes a Gamble

Bush Attacks

Besieging Baghdad

Darkness in Saddam's Bunker

Piccadilly It Aint Qissa Khani Is Still Qissa Kahani

Ed Asner and Afghanistan's Progress

Bush Delivers a Roadmap

Liberation or Imperialism

The Roadmap

Economic Rebound

Musharraf in Los Angeles

Economic Growth will lead to Democracy

Trapped by Myths and Fantasies

The Surge in Karachi Stocks

Bush's Busted Budget

America's Broken Healthcare

Time to Buy Stocks?

Islam, the State, and Human Rights

30 Years after the Oil Shock

The Future of Oil Wealth

Pakistan, India and Human Development

Pakistan's Eid Present

Iraq, Democracy and Islam

The End of Saddam Hussein

Three Wins for Pakistan

The Islamabad Declaration

Kerry's Big Wins

Repeal Hudood and Blasphemy

Bush's Growing Vulnerability

What Has Aziz Done?

Bits and Pieces

The Growth of India

Chaos in Iraq

Bush Caves in to Sharon

Abuse at Abu Ghraib

Too Harsh, Musharraf

The BJP Loses

What Do the Jihadis Want?

The Pak Economy: Bigger than We Think

Is America Richer than Europe?

Prime Minister Aziz

Unbundling WAPDA

Musharraf's Uniform

Chess Game in Kashmir

Three States, Three Debates

What's Wrong with the Democrats?

Can Elections Bring Peace to Iraq?

Elections in Iraq

Can Generals Yield to Democrats?

IMF Give Pakistan an “A”

Improve Higher Education in Pakistan

A Framework for Reconciliation

Iraq’s Elections By

Privatizing Power

Bullish in Karachi

Palestinians Should Abandon Suicide Bombings

The F-16’s

Bush’s Social Security Plan

Growth and Investment

Patronage Versus Policy

Aziz, the PML, and 2007

Are We Running out of Oil?

Purchasing Power

Economic Progress

Social Progress

PTCL and the Privatization Roller-coaster

Bombing in Britain

The Ummah is Not a Tribe

Is the US Oppressing the Muslims?

Is Iraq Dissolving?

Sharon Retreats

Pakistan and Israel

The Earthquake

The Other Earthquakes

The Battle for the Supreme Court

Pakistan’s Physician Exports

Beginning of the End in Palestine

Intelligent Design and Other Religious Beliefs

Shifting Populations in South Asia

Sharon’s Stroke

Building Dams

Hamas in Charge

Free Elections in 2007

Muslim Perspectives on Zionism

Iraq Falls Apart

Big Successes in Privatization

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Editor: Akhtar M. Faruqui
© 2004 pakistanlink.com . All Rights Reserved.