August
10, 2007
Musharraf-Benazir Tango to the Tune
Called by the US
Gen. Pervez Musharraf and his
arch political rival, Benazir Bhutto, arrived in
Abu Dhabi on July 27 for a one-hour, one-on-one,
meeting to finalize a deal for sharing power, which
had been under secret negotiations for quite some
time between Tariq Aziz, the confidant of the General
and Rehman Malik, the interlocutor on behalf of
Benazir. Both are well-known figures of Pakistan
and former senior officials who had been at one
time or another in the focus of media attention.
They must have ironed out, in over a dozen meetings,
all controversies and left only the final touches
for their principals.
The chief sticking point appears to be the General’s
insistence to retain his army position for “the
unity of command” and seamless implementation
of the decisions of the top leadership by the men
in uniform. Since the details of the deal have not
yet been made public, speculations dominate the
media buzz.
It is no secret that the talks were held at the
behest of the West, with the US taking the lead,
and were intended to forge an understanding between
the two major components of the Pakistani society
having liberal political views and willing to take
on the radical Islamic elements. The US Congress
passed legislation a few days back that would make
aid to Pakistan conditional on a crackdown on Islamic
militants particularly in the tribal areas.
Musharraf and Benazir share views, for instance,
on terrorism, elimination of extremism from society,
protection of minorities and removal of discrimination
against women.
Yet, there is a deep fault line and conflict of
interest between the two sectors: the army is a
well-disciplined, well-organized sector, but well
entrenched into the financial, economic and socials
fields of the civil society. The PPP, which is headed
by Benazir, has a better representation at the grassroots
level than any other political setup. It polled
the highest number of votes in the 2002 elections.
The founder of the party, Benazir’s father,
was an erudite visionary, but not unoften what he
did conflicted with what he preached. Socialism
was one of the three pillars of his precepts, but
in the name of social justice, he hamstrung the
thriving industrial sector by nationalizing all
key industries and thus causing the exit of their
representatives from the elected assemblies and
replacing them with the obsequious cronies of the
landed aristocracy. Pakistan’s politics thus
became a mixture of patronage, tribalism, backstabbing,
blackmail and feudalism. The feudal spirit still
dominates the society and lies at the root of several
social evils including the feudal lords’ aversion
to the education of the children of the poor tillers
of the soil.
Pakistan’s army has been for decades the best-organized
political party of the country. It has staged coupes
ostensibly to save the country from an impending
crisis no less than four times and has remained
in power half of the period of the country’s
existence. Strangely enough, every time a man in
uniform staged a coup d’etat, bulk of the
populace welcomed him warmly. This reflected the
failure of the civilian rulers in catering to the
aspirations of the people; also, it showed the expectations
of the people that the new ruler would attend to
their problems. Going by the statistics, the army
generals have generally fared much better in this
respect. Take, for instance, Musharraf’s period.
The economy has expanded at an average of 7% per
year spurred by an ambitious privatization program
and fueled by Gulf-country investments. Total direct
investment reached $6 billion in the past fiscal
year, up from 4.5 billion a year earlier. The US
has also funneled over $10 billion over the past
few years in military and economic assistance.
Military rule, unfortunately, does not accept the
pressure of accountability to the taxpayers and
the public at large. In the current scenario, the
army has but to keep the Western donors happy. The
US has ensured, through the latest Pakistan-specific
legislation that the anti-terrorist campaigns of
the army measure up to the expectations of the US
President. It could be seen as if Pakistan army
has been rendered answerable to the US President.
No wonder, the ruling men in uniform appear less
concerned with the frequent load shedding throughout
the country and the unavailability of potable water.
In the long run the neglect of such basic human
needs will be more explosive for any regime than
the much-tarnished extremism.
The Musharraf- Benazir deal may therefore be described
at best as personality politics. It is not driven
by any lofty moral or national interests but by
political compulsions of political survival of both
parties. And, it has been planned in the US corridors
of power to provide Musharraf with a new source
of civilian support – the PPP - instead of
the MMA. The latter group of six Islamic parties
has a latent sympathy for the Islamic radicals.
They had stood by Musharraf in the legislature at
several crucial junctures.
The harsh action against the Lal Masjid mullah and
his coterie portends the shape of things to come
in the tribal areas. That has already triggered
the spate of bomb blasts targeting the men in uniform
in particular.
Musharraf’s hold on power has considerably
weakened after the Supreme Court verdict against
his reference on the Chief Justice. He is besieged
both domestically and externally. US lawmakers and
media no longer trust him. The All Parties Conference
convened by Nawaz Sharif in London and attended
by 38 parties, with the Chairperson of PPP being
conspicuous by her absence, has resolved to form
a front against Musharraf. Internal schisms are
emerging within the Army itself; the US Congress
legislation has aggravated such trends.
Benazir’s personal compulsions are perhaps
more forceful. She has been out of power and out
of the country for over a decade. That has diluted
her hold on the party - many stalwarts of PPP are
now working as Ministers in the Musharraf government.
She cannot enter Pakistan without being arrested
under warrants already out for her unless the corruption
cases against her are withdrawn.
Apart from these personal compulsions, both parties
– absolute power and absolute corruption -
appear entangled in a tango to please the gallery
in Washington, which expects Musharraf to play a
John Wayne in his tribal belt.
arifhussaini@hotmail.com
