Iran, Israel,
and the Bomb
September
15, 2006
Iran’s nuclear policy has
been in the spotlight for the last few years as
it has geared up to enrich uranium. This process,
which could lead to a nuclear weapon within a
few years, has set off alarm bells in the White
House and in Israel, and has led to a diplomatic
chess game between Iran and the United States,
along with the rest of the UN Security Council.
The catalyst for all this is Iran’s enrichment
program. Uranium ore has two forms of uranium
in it, the more common heavier isotope (form)
and the much rarer light isotope. Only the light
isotope is useful either as nuclear fuel for a
reactor, or as the core of a bomb. To make a uranium-based
bomb, the first step is to separate the isotopes
and obtain a relatively pure stock of the light
isotope. This enrichment process is the most difficult
and challenging part of making a bomb, the rest
is basic engineering. If Iran can successfully
enrich uranium, it could create an atomic arsenal
within a few years. Combined with its medium-range
missile technology, it could bring Israel within
its nuclear reach.
The United States believes that Iran’s enrichment
process is purely military in nature, and reveals
clearly that Iran wants the bomb. Iran states
that it is simply doing what it is allowed to
do under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and that
its purpose is to produce nuclear fuel for power
plants. The United States and Europe wonder why
Iran needs nuclear power when it has so much oil
and gas, but Iran says that it wants to conserve
its fossil fuels for exports.
So far, American pressure has not yielded any
Iranian compliance. In fact, there is no conceivable
strategy that could stop Iran at this point if
the Iranians are determined. Neither an American
war on Iran nor a sanctions policy is likely.
Russia and China have no incentive to apply sanctions
to Iran, and without them the UN can’t act.
Regardless, any real ban on Iranian oil sales
would send the price of oil over 100 dollars a
barrel, and this the world economy can’t
tolerate.
So can we live with an Iranian bomb? We live with
a Russian and Chinese and Indian and Pakistani
and Israeli bomb, so why not Iran? Is Iran likely
to give the bomb to terrorist groups for use or
to attack the United States in an unprovoked manner?
Certainly not. Iran, like the other nuclear powers,
is deterable. It will not attack knowing that
the response will be nuclear assaults on all of
Iran’s major cities and the end of the clerical
regime. The Iranian clerics are conservative and
will not risk their standing.
American critics contend that President Ahmedinejad
is mentally unbalanced and capable of anything.
But the President of Iran, for all his rhetoric,
has no real power. When Khatami was President,
the US dismissed him as irrelevant, so why is
the new President suddenly so important?
The real threat Iran holds is not to the US but
to Israel. Even in Israel’s case, Iran will
not conduct a first-strike or will use its nuclear
weapons to wipe out Israel. Instead, an Iranian
nuclear arsenal will freeze Israel militarily,
and take away its decades-long ability to dominate
the Middle East. With Iranian nuclear missiles
in the equation, Israel cannot conduct its monthly
military adventures with impunity anymore. It
will become powerfully constrained. What if when
it invaded Lebanon, Iran had threatened a nuclear
strike on its army in Lebanon unless it left immediately?
Israel’s freedom of action would come to
an end when Iran has the bomb. This is why Israel
is so concerned about Iran’s program. Comments
can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com
