By Dr. Nayyer Ali

The Republicans Lick Their Wounds

Nobember 24, 2006

After the sound thrashing the Republicans took at the polls three weeks ago, the general sense in the country is that we have finally come back to our senses. Since 9/11 this nation has been essentially living under a Bush dictatorship, with the Democrats thoroughly cowed, and the Republicans all marching in lockstep with their leader. It was only after we found out that we were marching over a cliff that the voters put a stop to this nonsense.
The rout of the Republicans was seen mostly outside the southern states. In the South actually, the Republicans did pretty well, the only significant loss being the senate seat in Virginia, which the Democrats captured by a razor-thin margin. This solid showing in the southern states reflects the bedrock of support that stays with the Republicans among white southerners.
But outside the South, the Republicans got clobbered. They lost almost all their House seats in the Northeast, and lost Senate seats in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, and Montana. In Ohio, the critical swing state that pushed Bush into the White House in 2000 and 2004 by small margins, the Republican party was wiped out at all levels. Democrats also grabbed control of several governors’ mansions across the country, including New York and Ohio. These friendly governors will assist the next Democratic Presidential candidate in 2008.
The Republicans are in danger of turning into a regional party. By capturing the South in 1968, the Republicans began the drive that allowed them to win repeatedly in Presidential elections. The only Democrats to break this lock have been Southerners themselves, Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But now instead of a national Republican party that has broadened to gain critical support in the South, the Republicans are turning into a Southern party, while losing its national support.
This is quite a turnaround for the party of Lincoln, which led the Northern states to victory over the South in the Civil war. For a century, Republican was a dirty word in the South. But since 1968, it became identified with the White establishment, with religious faith, and with cultural conservatism.
There are still strong pockets of Republican support in Alaska, Utah, and some of the other smaller states in the Mountain West. But the heavily populated coastal states, the upper Mid-West, and border regions like Missouri and Colorado are now moving more and more Democrat. The Republicans may be looking at the South as a liability rather than an asset, as the rest of the country finds the Southern-flavored Republicans distasteful.
In 2008, the Republicans will need to nominate a Northerner, someone who can win in the critical moderate states that will decide the election, like Ohio. But if the party remains dominated by its Southern wing, it may not do that. The most attractive Republican candidates, Rudy Guiliani and John McCain, are not from the South. But they are also not typical Republicans. They have a more independent streak that may keep them from getting the nomination.
The Democrats need to build on this win. They need to show that there is a better way to lead the country. One that addresses our real problems without destroying our political values and shredding our basic human rights and civil liberties. There is a better way to deal with the problems of this world. If the Democrats show they can lead, they will win full control of the government in 2008.

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Editor: Akhtar M. Faruqui
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