September
21, 2007
Pakistan: Current Political Crisis
and the Common Man
The spectacular and racy political
dramas being played in Pakistan since March 12 when
President Musharraf fired Chief Justice Iftikhar
Chaudhry have exercised the minds of all keen observers
of the unfolding events as to the shape of things
to come, in particular the likely impact on the
prevalent system and the ruling oligarchy. Would
the on-going manipulations of the ruling elite succeed
and lead to a resumption of the perennial pattern
of power and to the submission of the common man
to the yoke of servitude? Or, would the likely convulsions
cause a palpable dent in the system making it cognizant
of and responsive to the pains of the common man?
Ironically enough, the rulers, whether in uniform
or in civilian clothes, have almost always presented
their decisions as having been taken solely in the
interest of the common man!
Thanks to the freedom being enjoyed now by the media,
private TV channels have been able to interview
the man in the street to portray his reaction to
the reported deal between the man in uniform and
the self-exiled lady politician. There has been
an uncanny unanimity in all the views expressed,
i.e: Gen. Musharraf wants to continue as President
for another term, while Benazir wants the corruption
cases against her withdrawn and the path to the
Premiership –for a third term- paved for her.
The aspirations of the common man for a place under
the sun find no place in the “deal”.
Once, decades back, when the then Governor of East
Pakistan, Sabur Khan, pointed out the likely adverse
reaction of the people to a certain decision of
the Government, President Ayub had remarked, “I
know my people, they are to be kept under the heel”.
Unfortunately, they have been squirming under the
jackboot ever since. Only Z.A. Bhutto had called
them the fountainhead of all power. The dignity
he showed to the poor, common people has been largely
instrumental in getting the People’s Party,
led by his daughter since his elimination, elected
to power twice. Her inability to do much for the
common man during her two stints, the miasma of
her corruption smelling to the sky, and now her
reported deal with Gen. Musharraf, commonly regarded
as an unscrupulous bid to sneak into the seat of
power, might have all combined to plummet her graph
of popularity.
Nawaz Sharif too tried to exploit the Supreme Court’s
current assertive mood to stage a come back and
to settle scores with the army chief. His party
men could not incite countrywide agitations as they
had expected. His evil deeds, particularly his long
record of corruption while in power, have not yet
faded from public memory. Nawaz Sharif and Benazir
constitute the Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum of the
political arena. While Benazir being a feudal lady
was on the take in the feudal spirit of gaining
something without giving anything, Nawaz being a
businessman practiced the art of give a little and
take a lot.
However, both have managed to keep their hold -more
by crooks than by hooks- on their respective party
apparatus. Their loyalists too hardly manifest any
genuine zeal for the welfare of the common man.
They too are charged with the spirit of self-service
and aggrandizement. Inspiration comes from the top.
The religious parties, MMA in particular, constitute
the only group that is committed to an ideology,
no matter how faulty and anachronistic their comprehension
of its postulates and underlying principles. Tens
of thousands of mosques and seminaries, their Imams
and teachers serve as valuable networks for the
transmission of messages. Their fanatics pose the
real challenge; frequent bomb blasts, suicide bombers,
and their successes in taking hundreds of troops
as hostages, bespeak of their reach.
The military having grasped power four times since
independence and having remained at the helm of
affairs for more than half of the country’s
60 years of existence, is now the only best organized
sector of the society. It has over this long period
of its rule eliminated or reduced to impotence all
other organized sectors while expanding, formally
or informally, its areas of influence and operations.
The decade-long war in Afghanistan against the Soviet
Union worked for the religious parties. It has spawned
Al Qaeda and Taliban and the 13,000 Madrassas that
keep producing the bigots willing to lay down their
lives for their religious beliefs.
To sum up, one may say that the two sectors that
really count are the military and the religious
parties. Musharraf’s rule was quite secure
so long as he had not alienated the religious extremists.
His real trouble now is in the tribal belt and in
Baluchistan where the Taliban are causing havoc.
The Taliban are racially Pushtun and some 40% of
the troops employed in the trouble spots are also
Pushtun. Some analysts go to the extent of saying
that the 300 troops who surrendered to the Taliban
in South Waziristan on August 30 did so voluntarily
as they did not wish to kill brother Muslims and
Pushtuns.
In this political milieu, the common man, the unrecognized
political force, has remained hostage to the whims
of the ruling elite, especially the civil and military
bureaucracies.
The ruling elite, the army in particular, look up
to the West -read the United States- for
inspiration. It is estimated that since 9/11 some
$5.6 billion have been injected into various sectors
of the country. Direct assistance to the military
amounts to $33 million every month.
Expenditure rises to meet income, but expenditure
seldom goes down to the level of reduced income.
The West -the United States, Britain and the European
Union- see Musharraf as their safest bet in stabilizing
the nuclear-armed country while fighting Al Qaeda
and Taliban. For buttressing his hold on the civilian
sectors of the society, they have inspired Benazir
to enter into a power-sharing deal with Musharraf.
She has avidly grasped the opportunity, for power
is her sole obsession. And, she cannot reach the
seat of power so long as the corruption cases against
her are not withdrawn.
Musharraf and Benazir, however, make the oddest
couple. Both are narcissistic and unlikely to share
power on the basis of equality. Even a meek Premier
like Junejo could not get along with Gen. Zia, ostensibly
a self-effacing person.
Nawaz Sharif, the other pretender to power, is now
marooned in Jeddah.
With an unfriendly Supreme Court breathing down
the neck of Musharraf, his constituency might be
mulling over the best line of action to retain its
supremacy without losing the goodwill of the US.
The sympathy of MMA, of JUI in particular, that
Musharraf has enjoyed, is fast eroding owing to
the strong actions against the extremists he has
had to take in the tribal areas. This might lead
to street protests initiated in mosques and resulting
in widespread turmoil and bloodshed. The Generals
waiting in the wings may then stage a coup, impose
a Martial Law and promise general elections within
90 days creating a deja vu of similar scenarios
of the past.
How would the common man fare in this fray? Most
probably it would be for him just a change of face.
One recalls a couplet of Shajee:
Badal jaey jo mir-i-karvan kiya farq pardta
hai
Agar jada vahi hoga tu manzil bhi vahi hogi
It would make little difference, if the leader of
the caravan changes,
If the route remains the same, the destination of
the caravan will also be the same.
(arifhussaini@hotmail.com)
