By Dr. Nayyer Ali

Whither Palestinians?

February 09, 2007

The Palestinian people find themselves at quite a crossroad in their national history. Rather than fighting Israel’s occupation of their land, they face the possibility of a civil war. Meanwhile, major existential questions about their future remain unresolved. In the next 12 months, the Palestinians need to get their own house in order so that they can return to focusing on the main goal, establishing an independent Palestine.
The root of the problem is Israel’s refusal for the last six years to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority. This lack of progress removed the main stumbling block for Hamas, the Islamist movement in Palestine, from winning an election. As Hamas refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements, including the basic Oslo framework in which the Palestinian Authority recognized Israel and accepted the 1967 borders, it clearly stood for confrontation with Israel rather than negotiation. Hamas is all about violent resistance (most Palestinian suicide bombers were sent by Hamas for example), and regards all of Palestine to belong to the Palestinians, including the land that is now Israel. Therefore, if the Palestinian people wanted to end the occupation and achieve a peace deal with the Israelis, they clearly could not do so with Hamas in charge.
So then why did Hamas win the elections for the Palestinian Parliament a year ago? Because Israel’s refusal to negotiate took away the main argument against Hamas. If Israel was not going to talk to Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority under Fatah control, then there is no loss to the Palestinians if Hamas is in charge instead. And given the widespread disgust among Palestinians over the corruption and mismanagement of government services under Fatah, Hamas could present itself as the party of reform and effective clean governance. This in fact worked, and Hamas won power.
But Hamas could not provide good governance and improve the lives of the Palestinians while at the same time engaging in violent resistance against Israel. The capturing of an Israeli soldier near Gaza last summer unleashed a massive Israeli attack on Gaza, which included blowing up of its main source of electricity. Despite that, Israel still hasn’t gotten its soldier back, and negotiations drag on. Hamas’s refusal to recognize Israel and abandon violence has also led to the US and EU cutting off the funds that pay most Palestinian salaries, while Israel stopped transferring hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes collected from Palestinians. This cash crisis has led to the near collapse of government services and a massive increase in poverty.
As a result, Hamas has seen its support erode. The latest polls show Fatah now having twice the support of Hamas. Palestinian President Abbas has threatened to call new elections, which he thinks would result in Hamas losing, unless Hamas changes its positions on these key issues. While some in the Hamas leadership, especially those living in Gaza, are willing to consider this, the head of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, who is based in Damascus, has so far ruled out any softening of the Hamas position. Abbas has even visited him in Damascus to try to resolve the crisis.
Hamas leaders state that Abbas has no right to dissolve the legislature and call elections, and that for him to do so would be a “coup” against the legitimate government. Tensions between Fatah and Hamas have spilled into the streets, and leaders on both sides have been shot at while street battles that portend a full civil war have taken place.
The other way out is to form a new government of national unity that would hand over power to technocrats acceptable to both Hamas and Fatah. The aim would be to get the EU and US to resume aid flows, and to get Israel to return finally to the negotiating table. Attempts at creating a national unity government have foundered though mainly on Hamas’ refusal to endorse a pragmatic political program of the unity government, namely acceptance of previous peace deals and a stated goal of creating Palestine only in the West Bank and Gaza, while accepting Israel within the 1967 borders.
This is finally the real question facing the Palestinian people. Is it time for Hamas to also join the camp of those who accept a two-state solution to the conflict? And if this were to happen can the Israelis and the US be trusted to negotiate in good faith and offer a real viable state and a full withdrawal to the 1967 borders? The Palestinians need to resolve these issues and develop an effective political strategy to achieve their goals. Otherwise, they are facing another generation in refugee camps and under Israeli subjugation. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

 

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