By Dr. Nayyer Ali

Blind to the Future?

February 23, 2007

 

This year will mark the 40th anniversary of the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza by Israel. The territories were taken in the June 1967 war started by Israel in a sneak attack on the Egyptian Air Force. Menachem Begin, future Prime Minister of Israel, described it as a “war of choice” despite the standard Zionist Kool-Aid about how Israel faced elimination by the inept army of Egypt.
After Israel’s stunning and easy win, it set out to colonize the seized land in an attempt to realize the Zionist dream of settling all the Biblical land of Israel. Over the next several decades, all Israeli governments encouraged and supported settlements. It is a myth that settlements were the work of the evil right-wing Ariel Sharon. In the last 15 years the biggest builder of settlements was Ehud Barak, who masqueraded as the man willing to give the Palestinians a state.
Yet after two intifadas, the Israeli government now pays lip service to the idea that once the Palestinians create an advanced prosperous democracy based on non-violence and a love of Zionism in their little patches of territory, Israel might talk about a state for them. Actually the Israelis are so keen on the idea, they won’t stop with just one Palestinian state, they will happily grant the Palestinians 12 or 15 statelets. Each one the size of a postage stamp crammed with people and surrounded by checkpoints and walls, but they get their own passport and the right to pick up their own garbage, so the Palestinians should be quite pleased. This way, Israel gets to keep all its settlements which is an imperative for them. A casual glance at the current map shows that it is now impossible to create a Palestinian state. The settlers have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams and the two-state solution is a fantasy.
Israel has the best of all possible worlds at present. The only global superpower believes its interests and Israel’s are pretty much always identical. It has successfully defeated the intifada with walls and 500 checkpoints. It deals firmly with Palestinian women and children, jailing several hundred of them at a time. It even denied entry to the only heart surgeon working in the West Bank when he tried to come back from a trip abroad. Israel has a huge nuclear arsenal, a military that dominates the entire Middle East, and the support of a wealthy and influential diaspora of millions of Jews. Its settlers continue to expand with impunity. Gaza has been turned into a giant outdoor prison where the inmates get to maintain order or be shelled. At this point there is no reason to change the status quo, which is why Israel has no interest in the condition of the Palestinians, except to the extent that some of them need to be assassinated. In contrast its neighbors are small, poor, and unsophisticated.
But what about the future? Where will things stand when the newborn child in Ramallah today is teaching his son how to play soccer? In 2050 the world will be quite different. Just look at what the US Census bureau projects as the populations of the following countries in 2050. Egypt 125 million, Yemen 70 million, Syria 35 million, Saudi Arabia 50 million, Jordan 12 million, Palestine 10 million, Iran 80 million, and Iraq 55 million. Pakistan will be almost 300 million. Israel by contrast will have 8.5 million people, almost 30% of whom will be Muslim or Christian.
In Europe and the US the demographic changes will be significant too. Most European states will have 10-20% Muslim populations. In America Muslims should number 8-10 million. In contrast the Jewish diaspora is rapidly shrinking. America’s Jewish population is projected to decline from 5 million to less than 3 million, according to a leading Israeli academic.
Turning to economics, all of the Muslim countries should have economies 20-30 times larger than today. In fact many of them are 20 times larger than they were 50 years ago. But the tough slog out of the depths of economic backwardness is now over. It takes just as much effort to go from 300 dollars per capita to 3000 as it does to go from 3000 to 30,000. This next 50 years will witness that second leg of development. Pakistan should reach almost 10 trillion dollars (sustained 6-7% growth) while Egypt should get to 5 trillion. Saudi will be 1-2 trillion dollars, as will Iraq.
These massive economies will sustain advanced military capabilities. Muslim countries should by then have fully indigenous weapons capabilities. Pakistan for example already makes its own tanks, artillery, missiles, submarines, and jet fighters. They are not as advanced as US weapons, but the learning curve has begun. A joint weapons program, similar to what the EU does, is likely to be developed between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia in the next decade or two. Finally, Iran, and perhaps Saudi Arabia and Egypt will have also acquired nuclear weapons.
Given this state of affairs in a few short decades, it seems that the strength of Israel’s relative position in the Middle East is set for a steady decline. Israel’s interests are not served by leaders who behave today with no concern about the future. Conversely, the Palestinians may well find themselves in a much better position to demand their rights if they can put up with another generation of occupation and refugee camps. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com

 

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