By Dr. Nayyer Ali

Can Musharraf Escape His Own Trap?

May 25, 2007

 

President General Pervez Musharraf has dug himself a very deep hole. The spiraling crisis of the Chief Justice of Pakistan has resulted in major bloodshed in Karachi, and Musharraf’s credibility with the population of Pakistan, and with Pakistanis abroad, has taken a major tumble. What was a tactical, and survivable, political error has now magnified into something that threatens his grip on power.
It was quite clear when Musharraf basically removed the Chief Justice back in early March that this was a major miscalculation on his part. The reaction throughout the country, and particularly in the media, was very negative on this power play against the judiciary. The rough treatment given the Chief Justice on March 9 became such an embarrassment that Musharraf had to disavow it and essentially apologize for it. But he failed to take the critical next step, which was to withdraw the reference against the Chief Justice and restore his position on the court. At that time, it was still feasible for Musharraf to climb down honorably and to reach a gentleman’s agreement with the Chief Justice.
But Musharraf refused to take that obvious correct step, and insisted on going ahead with this bizarre course. He probably hoped that over time the protests, which were mainly being carried out by lawyers, would fizzle and wither away.
Instead, they gathered steam, as the political parties took this issue as a club to attack Musharraf, and the Chief Justice began to rally support for himself across the country. This culminated in the 24-hour journey by road from Islamabad to Lahore where he was greeted by throngs of well-wishers along the way. This massive display of public support was a profound shock to Musharraf, and put his government in full-blown panic mode.
When the Chief Justice decided to meet with the Karachi Bar, Musharraf decided to stop this public agitation against him. He gave a green light to the goon squads of the MQM, who answer to their supreme leader Altaf Hussain, in exile in London, to rough up anyone coming on the street to support the Chief Justice. When the CJ flew into Karachi, and demonstrators took to the street on his behalf, the MQM responded with violence, killing over 30 people, while the military and police stood aside. Clearly they were ordered to allow the MQM to do the dirty work.
But where does Musharraf go from here? He can no longer craft a workable political system based on a free election. He needed a friendly Supreme Court to allow him to subvert the Constitution and continue to be Chief of the Army Staff while also being President. It is hard to conceive that any Pakistani Supreme Court at this point would rule in his favor on that except at the point of a gun. So even if he wins the struggle with Iftikhar Chaudhry, he loses his attempt to fashion a compliant Supreme Court.
His second option, which is to make a deal with Benazir Bhutto and let her win a free election in exchange for another Presidential term for Musharraf, is now also in serious jeopardy. Given how much Musharraf has poisoned the game, it would be a serious mistake for Benazir to save Musharraf by offering him a sweetheart deal at this point. In fact, such a move would likely backfire on the PPP, and seriously reduce its credibility with the liberal forces in the society that it claims to speak for.
Why the MQM hitched its wagon so closely to Musharraf is unclear. By becoming the enforcers of the current regime, they will have the most to lose if Musharraf weakens or loses power. They may have made a very serious error by tying their political fortunes so closely to the current military regime.
For the last eight years I have argued that the economic and social reforms of Musharraf would eventually create a liberal middle-class of Pakistanis that would demand democracy, regardless of the authoritarian and corrupt nature of the traditional Pakistani civil-military elites. Six months ago I would have said we are still 5-10 years away from the arrival of that moment. It looks like I may have been far too pessimistic on the timing. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

 

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