August 22 , 2008

US-Russia Conflict in Georgia - More Than a Turf War

The peace deal brokered by France on August 12, five days after the war started between Russia and Georgia, has diminished the fighting, but reports keep appearing that Russian forces have not totally given up their penetration deep into Georgian territories.
There are more dimensions to the conflict than what Georgia, Russia or the US proclaim. An attempt will be made here to shed some light on the not-so-obvious aspects of the conflict.
Georgia’s military strength is not even a patch on the might of the Soviet war machine, which includes over a million men in uniform and a vast nuclear arsenal.  And, it was Georgia that provoked the Soviet invasion by trying to militarily consolidate its hold over its two breakaway provinces – South Ossetia and Abkhazia. These provinces had gained considerable autonomy through their secessionist struggle since early 1990s when several central Asian states, including Georgia, became independent following the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Both the provinces claim to be ethnically different from Georgia, hence their aspirations to be independent entities.
Georgian leader, Mikheil Saakashvilli, a Columbia University law graduate, who built quickly a thriving law practice in New York, was elected in 2004  and reelected in 2008 as President of his native land,  and is a staunch US ally. Many of his Ministers are also US-educated and genuine admirers of American way of life. They succeeded in giving Georgia 10-12 per cent annual growth rate and a thriving middle class.
Saakashvilli regime earned the displeasure of Russia by withdrawing from the Russia-sponsored Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)  - a clear defiance of the Russian design to have the areas constituting the former Soviet Union as its turf, its area of influence.          
The United States, the European Union and other Western states have stood firmly behind the newly independent central Asian states, most of whom are Muslim and enjoy distinctive cultural identities.
Georgia is largely an orthodox Christian country with a sprinkling of some 10% Muslims, and is akin to the West in many respects. Above all else, the 1200-mile long oil pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan to Turkey’s Ceyhan port on the Mediterranean, that was planned and financed by Western oil companies, runs through Georgia.  The pipeline was first conceived by President Bill Clinton after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and was deliberately so planned as to avoid Russia, Iran and Chechnya. A gas pipeline is also to follow the same transit route.
The oil pipeline was built at a fast clip and has been in operation for over three years now. The oil reserves in the Caspian Sea region are estimated to be next only to those of Saudi Arabia. The US and its Western allies can therefore hardly afford to let Georgia slip into the Russian fold. Energy resources are thus at the heart of the conflict between Russia and the US.
The Georgian President, Saakashvilli may have thus felt that if Russia militarily countered his move in the two breakaway provinces, the US and allies would rush to his side with all their might. A point he perhaps forgot to take into his calculation was the Western forces’ embroilment in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The EU is considerably dependent for its gas and oil on Russia. For, a quarter of all the oil and gas used in EU states is supplied by Russia. The enormous price hike of oil and gas on world market has bolstered the Russian coffers as mush as the confidence of that country. Russian premier, Vladimir Putin, who had been dreaming of restoring his state’s suzerainty over the erstwhile Soviet territories, could hardly pass the opportunity to launch a military intervention in Georgia.
The US President did promptly condemn the Soviet invasion and has sent his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, to support the President of France, who had brokered the ceasefire, and all other concerned parties so that the conflict is amicably and peacefully resolved.
The war began on August 7 with an artillery exchange between Georgia’s army and separatists in South Ossetia backed by Russia that wields all hard power.  Russian authorities have been supporting the separatists of South Ossetia and Abkhazia but not without a hidden agenda of their own. A good number of the citizens of the two provinces have been issued Russian passports. And, an argument in favor of their intervention is that it was meant to protect the Russian citizens residing in that area.
As the conflict cools and hardens, the two separatist regions could wind up permanently annexed by Russia. Such an annexation might be the price the US and the EU might have to pay for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Georgia. Russian troops are hunkering down in major cities of Georgia, despite vociferous calls by the leaders of the Western world that they withdraw quickly. But, the six-point peace deal signed by both Russia and Georgia lays down no timetable for the withdrawal. It will have to be settled through bilateral or multilateral negotiations.
Bush administration has made it quite clear that military options were off the table, although the US did airlift Georgian troops stationed in Iraq back home in response to a plea of the Georgian government.
Given Russia’s oil wealth and nuclear arsenal, the West’s leverage is limited, though not inconsequential. Russia may still be smarting under the humiliation caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union and its status as a super power. Then there was a drawing of the Eurasia map with the West attempting to integrate former Soviet republics in the Caucasus into the Western orbit. Also, it faced the prospect of perpetual military quagmires around its borders, and its former satellites, for instance Poland and Czechoslovakia, joining the Western camp.
The US finalized a deal with Poland on August 14, a week after the war broke out in the Caucasus, for the installation of an American antimissile system to ward off rogue states such as Iran. Russian officials rebuked the deal, as they perceived it to be against their own security.
In the case of Georgia, Russia is perhaps on a better wicket. For, the West lacks effective levers to stymie Russian agenda of spreading its sphere of influence in that region.
If the European allies of the US decide to stop purchases of Russian oil, it would be counterproductive and amount to cutting one’s nose to spite one’s face.  They may snub Russia by not inviting it to meetings of the Group of Seven. Such a move would, in effect, deprive the Group of keeping Russia within its own orbit.  The West may, likewise, oppose the Russian request for membership of World Trade Organization (WTO).  But, then the WTO is itself tottering since the last meeting owing to the inability of members to develop a consensus on major issues.
The negotiating skills of Western diplomats would obviously be on test. But, as already mentioned above, Russian troops might withdraw from Georgia if the two secessionist territories of Georgia are allowed to be annexed by Russia.  As it is, the two provinces are virtually the vassals of Russia.
With its troops entrenched in major cities of Georgia, Russia would reach the negotiation table from a position of strength. The prime interest of the West would be to ensure its continued access to the Caspian Sea oil and gas and the security of the pipeline transiting through Georgia.  For any agreement to be viable, it would have to strike a balance between Western interests in Caspian Sea oil and gas and the Russian desire to reclaim at least a part of its erstwhile standing in its own neighborhood.     (Arifhussaini@hotmail.com)