By Dr. Nayyer Ali

Israel’s Surprise Offer

June 22, 2007

In a rather stunning twist to the never-ending saga of the Arab-Israeli conflict, there are credible reports that Israel has offered to return the Golan Heights to Syria in exchange for a peace deal. This is a golden opportunity, and it would be unfortunate if Syria does not take advantage of this development.
The Golan Heights are a Syrian plateau captured by Israel in the 1967 war, exactly 40 years ago, and officially annexed by Israel in 1982, an annexation that no other country recognizes as valid. Syria has always demanded the full return of the Golan in exchange for peace, but the Israelis have never been willing to do that. Prime Minister Rabin in the early 1990’s did put such an offer on the table, but it was retracted after his assassination and the subsequent victory of the hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections. The next Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, offered Syria almost all of the Golan, but insisted on keeping a small portion that proved to be dealbreaker.
So why now is Israel offering to accede to Syria’s demands? Prime Minister Olmert is deeply unpopular over the mishandling of the Lebanon war with Hezbollah last summer, and his government is in danger of falling. To achieve a concrete peace with Syria could revive his political fortunes. Israelis have long claimed that by giving the Golan back would place them in a difficult military position, but the rise of missile and rocket warfare has shown to the Israelis that real peace is the only solid basis for their security, not holding this or that piece of territory. Although there are significant numbers of Israeli settlers on the Golan, they could be forced out if needed.
The other major advantage for Israel is the desire to break the alliance between Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. In exchange for finally returning the Golan, Israel would demand that Syria dissolve its alliances with Iran and Hezbollah. This would also make an Israeli-Lebanese peace treaty possible, and provide Olmert a political way to defeat Hezbollah, as his military attempt last year floundered. In addition, Hamas has its top leadership based in Damascus, and they would lose their Syrian patron if a deal with Israel happened. Overall, a successful treaty could reshape Israel’s strategic situation.
Syria too has much to gain from a peace treaty. Getting all of the Golan back has been a Syrian goal for 40 years. For Bashar Assad, it would give him a basis for legitimacy, as he would have finally achieved what his father, the prior ruler of Syria, never could. The Syrians could be persuaded to abandon the Iranian alliance, but they would want to obtain a positive relationship with the West in exchange. After Sadat signed the peace with Israel in 1979, Egypt was rewarded with a two billion dollar aid package that was renewed every year since then. Over 50 billion dollars have flowed to Egypt in the last few decades from the US. Syria too would want to have their regime legitimized by the US, a remarkable turn of events given that many neo-cons had targeted Syria next for regime change in the immediate aftermath of the 2003 conquest of Saddam’s Iraq. Finally, there is the UN tribunal looking into the murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, which is pursuing the Syrian role in that murder. This investigation is very embarrassing for the Syrians, and could lead all the way to Bashar Assad himself, possibly resulting in an international indictment for murder against him or other senior Syrians. A peace treaty with Israel could create political pressure to squash the investigation.
For the Palestinians, it would actually be a good thing for the Syrians to make this deal. It would establish again the precedent that only a full Israeli withdrawal from captured territory will result in peace. And it will again force Israel to withdraw settlers. By reducing Israel’s dispute with the Arabs in general to a conflict only with the Palestinians, it will force the Israelis to finally confront the need to deal directly with the issue of how to equitably share the Holy Land with the Palestinians, who will soon be the majority living there. Assad should respond favorably to the Israeli offer. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.

 

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