September 12 , 2008

Zardari Presidency – A Period of Civilian Dictatorship?

With his overwhelming victory in the Presidential election of September 6, Asif Ali Zardari may be perceived by many, and quite justifiably, as an astute politician instead of a Mr. 10 % with an acute trust deficit. His image as Benazir’s polo-playing, graft-seeking, high-living playboy, who would go to any extent to terminate opponents, is now being super-imposed by that of a decent, thoughtful, and far-sighted statesman.
Even his ‘wadera’ attire, his handlebar moustache, and his hairstyle have all changed to give him a more sober look. And, he appears in public with his teenage daughters to convey the image of a responsible family man with the closest link and commitment to the Bhutto family. “But make no mistake about it”, warns Najm Sethi, Chief Editor of Daily Times, “he is as ruthless as they come where his interests are concerned”.
One sincerely hopes that the change will be abiding and not just a color change of a chameleon to cause a deception.
No doubt, he has outsmarted, out–maneuvered and outplayed Nawaz Sharif, Altaf Husain, Fazlur Rehman  and many others through backroom parleys and promises, and his genius as a wheeler-dealer apart from the general sympathy for him over the murder of his wife. Surprisingly enough, it was Altaf Husain of MQM, the most vocal opponent of feudalism, who proposed the name of the staunch wadera for the Presidency. A pre-election opinion poll conducted by a private TV station, ARY, showed his approval rating as the lowest among the three presidential candidates. That shows that the general perception about his persona continues to stick. Had the elections been direct, instead of through the Electoral College comprising the Assembly, Senate and Provincial Assemblies, the result would have been different.
By getting resolutions passed by the provincial assemblies in support of his candidacy, he had secured the members’ commitment, although this was not required and was unprecedented.  But, he is a smart player of the game.
Once he managed to don the mantle of his wife as head of the PPP, he successfully steered the party to victory in the general elections.
While Benazir was alive, Zardari remained in the background, babysitting their children and attending to their foreign assets and investments. So, his political skills remained largely under the lid. Benazir too never wanted him to steal the limelight. 
He comes out as a clear thinking person in his article “Democracy Within Our Reach”  in the Washington Post of September 4 in which he claims that the majority of Pakistani people have been in the past ignored and even subjugated by the country’s establishment.  “This concentration of unchecked power has strained our government to the point of fracture.” Pakistan’s politics, he maintains, has always been a struggle between democratic forces and “an elite oligarchy, located exclusively in a region stretching between Lahore and Rawalpindi-Islamabad”. 
These are noble thoughts but ironically enough from the pen of a wadera given to ostentatious living in his own palaces in foreign lands. Unless the article was ghost written, it dispels Zardari’s plea to a London court last year that he would not be able to present himself in the court to defend himself against a corruption charge, as he was suffering from “emotional instability”, memory loss and concentration problem. Two psychiatrists of New York made the diagnosis of dementia in March 2007. The court accepted the plea.  Evidently, the certificates were obtained merely to avoid facing the court proceedings.
The corruption and murder cases against him in Pakistani courts too were similarly postponed indefinitely till a political decision was taken on them. That is exactly what happened when Musharraf found himself cornered and constrained to issue the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) withdrawing all cases against Benazir and Zardari.   That was a great disservice that Musharraf did to himself and to the nation. Even the two murder cases against Zardari were withdrawn!  Musharraf was shown the door in return. 
The investigating judge in Geneva, Daniel Devaud, expressed his shock and surprise over the withdrawal. But, so are the ways of politics of self-interest in Pakistan.
Zardari could thus compare himself to Jesus Christ, and in an interview to the BBC he could declare that he was “the cleanest politician around” and that all cases against him were politically motivated.
An editorial in Dawn of Sept. 7 observes on the other hand: “The catalogue of allegations against him is well-known and every sordid detail has been raked up since his bid for the Presidency was announced. While the past cannot be erased  -NRO notwithstanding - what Mr. Zardari needs to do is to dispel the impression that he is a political wheeler-dealer who is adept at making backroom deals but unable to rise to the requirements of statesmanship.”
A long article in the Wall Street Journal saw Mr. Zardari as “easily one of the most notorious figures in the long parade of horribles that make up the country’s political history.”
Once he is sworn in as President, he will start enjoying legal immunity for the next five years. Would this turn him into a civilian dictator at par with a military variety, if not worse? Or, would he voluntarily shed the powers available to him in the current disposition and become a constitutional head as laid down in the original 1973 Constitution?  He has promised to do so in his Washington Post write-up and numerous public statements. If he did that he would be strengthening parliamentary democracy and accepting a titular position for himself.   Article 41 of the constitution presents the role of the President as the symbol of the federation and of the unity of the country. But, would an acquisitive person like Zardari voluntarily give up the powers to sack the parliament and the Prime Minister under Article 58 –2(b) of the constitution and of appointing chiefs of the armed forces and be the chief custodian of Pakistan’s nuclear assets?
The answer is ‘No’. 
Yet, the two major parties of the country had joined hands to get rid of Musharraf and the draconian laws conferring those powers on him. All members of the parliament stand committed to the removal of those powers from the constitution. The constitutional package already drafted by the PPP stalwarts does away with the powers. And, Mr. Zardari too has made firm commitments to that effect. Could be that he would accept the consensus and support the trimming of the powers.  He would also have to consider giving up the leadership of the PPP to ensure that the head of state is a non-partisan individual.
The severest test of Zardari’s talents will be in handling the US-Pakistan differences over the handling of the militants’ challenge in the tribal belt of the Frontier Province. US forces raided South Waziristan on September 3 killing twenty villagers in their pursuit of the militants. A day later, both houses of Pakistan’s parliament voted unanimously in favor of a motion calling on the government to take military action to thwart such incursions. Pakistan’s army and political parties favor negotiated settlement with the tribal leaders, while the US wants an increase in Pakistan’s military operations. Numerous US politicians, including Barack Obama, several retired  generals and think tank experts, on the other hand, insist that the US must militarily intervene if Pakistan authorities failed to rapidly pacify its border regions.
Fact of the matter is that Pakistan’s army has already undertaken large-scale operations in the region for some five years costing thousands of lives. Yet, it has only added fuel to the fire. Hence the tilt towards negotiated settlement and the unanimous resolutions in both houses of parliament. Mr. Zardari, on the other hand, has promised in his Washington Post write-up: “I will work to defeat the domestic Taliban insurgency and to ensure that Pakistani territory is not used to launch terrorist attacks on our neighbors or on NATO forces in Afghanistan”.
If he tries to act on what he says, he would challenge the stance of politicians as well as the army. Would he manifest the caliber to overcome this dilemma?
- arifhussaini@hotmail.com