Pakistan’s
Arms Industry
August
17, 2007
Over the last ten years Pakistan
has developed a highly sophisticated domestic
arms industry. A few weeks ago Pakistan test-fired
its first cruise missile, a complex technology
only mastered by a few advanced nations. This
comes on top of a whole slew of sophisticated
modern weapon systems that Pakistan has begun
building in the last few years.
Pakistan now builds its own tanks, jet fighters,
medium-range ballistic missiles, artillery, and
almost all of its own small arms. It also is constructing
its own diesel-powered submarines in collaboration
with France. And of course, Pakistan produces
its own atomic bombs. This is an impressive achievement
for a nation that had no heavy industry whatsoever
at independence.
Although Pakistan can make most of the products
of modern armies, it lacks the expertise and technological
base to make them as well as US or European builders
do. There is a learning curve, and the first generation
of products will be inferior to what is built
elsewhere. But in time Pakistani technology will
improve and catch up. In fact, it is highly likely
that Pakistan will become a major exporter of
weapons in the next few decades.
One of the basic pillars of American power is
its monopoly of the most advanced weapons. No
other nation has guided bombs coupled with stealth
bombers and a global surveillance system. This
gives the US a devastating advantage over any
adversary in conventional war. A few thousand
Northern Alliance militia troops were able to
overthrow the Taliban in eight weeks once they
had American air support. It is very much in America’s
interest to maintain its huge technological lead
over the rest of the world.
One of the reasons for the gap is that only America
can purchase weapons in sufficient quantities
to make the price reasonable. There is a huge
development cost in any new generation of weapons,
and if that cost is only spread out over a few
units, it becomes prohibitive. No nation can afford
to buy only 50 fighter planes if the planes will
cost a billion dollars each.
As the US is now the only builder of advanced
weapons systems, and can make them at a reasonable
price, access to US weapons is a critical determinant
of the international power balance. Israel’s
access to US aircraft and helicopters gives it
an unassailable advantage over any Arab adversary.
In addition, the US is able to use its weapons
largesse as a means of influence. Once a country
buys US weapons, its military position is hostage
to the US being willing to supply spare parts
and ammunition in the future. This leaves such
a country beholden to the US.
Because Pakistan has such a large population,
it is one of the few Muslim countries that can
sustain a truly large military-industrial capacity.
But even still, it too will be constrained by
its size relative to the US or India or China.
Even as its economy grows at 7% per year, it will
remain a fraction of the size of the other three
due to either their large population, or in the
case of the US, its large economic lead.
This would suggest that Pakistan might want to
go the European route. In order to maintain some
independent military technological capacity, the
European nations have banded together to jointly
develop weapons. This includes fighter planes
and other systems. It is highly likely that Pakistan
would seek partners to jointly develop next generation
weapons. Suitable partners for Pakistan would
include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Turkey is a possible associate, depending on whether
it ends up in the European Union or not. This
would allow several large and wealthy Muslim nations
to pool together and share costs and production
of weapons that would give these countries true
independence. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
