September 19 , 2008

Wrinkle in US-Pakistan Relations

The current glitch in US-Pakistan relations may be traced to a  September 3 US operation in which over 20 Navy Seals were transported to a village in South Waziristan where they attacked three compounds and killed “about two dozen Al Qaeda fighters”.
Pakistan was not informed of the impending attack. This led to a widespread outrage in Pakistan whose officials produced a detailed list of the victims, which included six women and two children, and all the dead were said to be local villagers, none of them belonging to Al Qaeda as claimed by the US. 
The raid was followed by three separate US missile attacks in adjoining North Waziristan within a week.  The attacks have continued with increasing frequency despite vehement condemnation at the highest civil and military levels in Pakistan. 
According to the NY Times of Sept. 11, President Bush had secretly approved orders in July allowing US forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without informing first Pakistani authorities.  But for the exemplary cooperation between the two countries in the war on terror and the common objective of eliminating the militants and extremists, such an act would have been regarded as an invasion and even a declaration of war.  Then, the US has been the chief patron of Pakistan and provider of large quantities of civil and military assistance.
The new orders, according to the NY Times, reflect concern about safe havens for Al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, as well as an American view that Pakistan lacks the will and ability to combat militants.  “They also illustrate lingering distrust of the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies and a belief that some American operation had been compromised once Pakistanis were advised of the details.”  Concrete evidence of such betrayals of trust has been lacking. 
What is beyond doubt is the fact that Pakistan has deployed no less than 120,000 of its troops to combat the extremists and militants in the semi-autonomous tribal areas and the adjoining regions. Over 1500 Pakistani soldiers have so far been killed in the conflict, while many times more of the combatants have been wasted, their casualties number 700 in August only.   Pakistan has lost more troops than those of the entire coalition forces in Afghanistan.
Yet, a State Department adviser told reporters that Pakistan’s inability to dismantle terrorist safe havens in FATA has made the US decide to take care of the problem on their own. Hence, the Presidential order.
Many areas of Swat and Bajaur have turned into killing fields. Pakistan Army’s operations continue there despite the holy month of Ramadan.  Over 300,000 inhabitants of the areas, particularly of Bajaur agency, have abandoned their houses to flee to safer places in adjoining cities and towns. The entire region is reported to be in the worst turmoil possible and confronted with a deplorable human tragedy.
Nevertheless, the operations have become inevitable as the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the fascist Mullahs constitute an unmitigated evil and have to be eradicated if Pakistan is to avoid being pushed into an abyss of obscurantism and retrogression.  Eradication may be pursued through debate and discussion or a direct resort to the gun. It is a matter of strategy. 
Pakistan was never envisaged as a theocracy.  Gen. Zia’s Islamization process, which was essentially to unite various factions in the war against Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, died with him. The founding fathers of Pakistan were quite clear in their minds that Pakistan should be a modern, liberal and progressive nation.
While this column was being composed, news came that three visitors to a mosque in Peshawar who were seeking to recruit young men for the Jehad in the tribal belt, were detained by the congregation and handed over to the police. Nothing surprising in this episode for the people who had gathered there for prayer were giving vent to their basic instincts as citizens of a forward-looking nation. 
It was the realization of these inherent anti-war sentiments that the newly elected government of Pakistan tried to negotiate peace deals with various tribes. Such deals might have ensured long periods of peace like the deals done by the British some 175 years back. The US is opposed to such peace overtures. It wants the militants to be knocked out by an iron fist.  It has decided to assign to the Afghan arena half of the troops withdrawn from Iraq.
War is a highly expensive affair. The Iraq war has been financed almost entirely on credit; the US national debt has thus increased by two-thirds over the past eight years.  The resultant economic woes are causing severe jolts to the populace, despite the fact that the US is the sole super power and the richest country of the world.  The constantly expanding economic worries constitute now the top issue in the forthcoming elections; Iraq is no longer the number one issue.
Pakistan’s economy too has grown more fragile with the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  Ongoing food and fuel shortages, rapidly depleting reserves, limited exports and increasing imports and inflation portend a fast meltdown of its fragile economy.  Like in the US, economy is now the number one issue for the people of Pakistan too.  It has become the crucial issue for the forthcoming US elections too. Iraq now ranks next.
Several analysis have mentioned that Russia could invade Georgia because of the pre-occupation of the US with “the failing wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Pakistan too has been notably destabilized owing to its entanglement with the insurrections in FATA and adjoining territories. The US reimbursements are only a patch on what the nation is paying for the war effort in men and materials.
The US misadventure in FATA has undermined its own moral authority. For, military intrusion in the territory of another country tantamounts to a declaration of war. It betrays the arrogance of power. Of course, the US is the sole super power and militarily the strongest country of the world. That does not entitle it to a free play of its hubris and a farewell to its basic perception of moral authority. 
Perhaps, the Bush administration is trying to come up with some success stories in capturing or killing the Al Qaeda and Taliban elements in the tribal areas in order to strengthen the prospects of the Republican Presidential candidate in the November 20 elections.  arifhussaini@hotmail.com